Trader consensus on SpaceX's 2026 launch tally clusters tightly around 140-179, with market-implied odds split at 34% for 140-159 and 33% for 160-179, propelled by the firm's record 2024 cadence exceeding 130 Falcon 9 missions and stated 2025 target of 170 amid voracious Starlink satellite demand. Differentiating the leading bins are Starship's maturation milestones—recent booster catches and orbital reentry successes signaling reusable Super Heavy economics that could unlock 5-10 flights monthly from Starbase, boosting total throughput beyond Falcon pads' ~120 limit. Upside to 200+ hinges on FAA licensing acceleration and cryogenic propellant scaling, while supply chain bottlenecks and range congestion temper extremes per historical reusability ramps.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
160-179 33%
140-159 29.1%
180-199 20.5%
200次或更多 18%
$233,958 交易量
$233,958 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
少于100
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
6%
140-159
34%
160-179
33%
180-199
11%
200次或更多
18%
160-179 33%
140-159 29.1%
180-199 20.5%
200次或更多 18%
$233,958 交易量
$233,958 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
少于100
$2,020 交易量
<1%
100-119
$1,294 交易量
1%
120-139
$1,754 交易量
6%
140-159
$24,666 交易量
34%
160-179
$70,369 交易量
33%
180-199
$56,902 交易量
11%
200次或更多
$76,953 交易量
18%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
市场开放时间： Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
交易量
$233,958结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
交易量
$233,958结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on SpaceX's 2026 launch tally clusters tightly around 140-179, with market-implied odds split at 34% for 140-159 and 33% for 160-179, propelled by the firm's record 2024 cadence exceeding 130 Falcon 9 missions and stated 2025 target of 170 amid voracious Starlink satellite demand. Differentiating the leading bins are Starship's maturation milestones—recent booster catches and orbital reentry successes signaling reusable Super Heavy economics that could unlock 5-10 flights monthly from Starbase, boosting total throughput beyond Falcon pads' ~120 limit. Upside to 200+ hinges on FAA licensing acceleration and cryogenic propellant scaling, while supply chain bottlenecks and range congestion temper extremes per historical reusability ramps.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题