Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 140-179 SpaceX launches in 2026, reflecting optimism from accelerating Falcon 9 cadence—projected at 140+ this year after 96 in 2023—tempered by Starship's ramp-up uncertainties. Recent Starship Flight 5's booster catch demonstrates reusable propulsion advances, enabling faster turnaround via Raptor engine reliability and heat shield iterations, potentially adding 50+ flights if orbital refueling tests succeed by mid-2026. Differentiating higher bins like 200+ hinges on scaling production to 1,000+ second stages annually and FAA approvals for daily launches, against risks from anomaly rates in unproven rapid reuse cycles and orbital slot congestion.