Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 260-339 tweets for Elon Musk's X posting from March 31 to April 7, with 260-279 edging at 12% implied probability amid razor-thin margins for neighboring ranges, reflecting his consistent recent weekly output of 260-279 posts (March 20-27) and 280-299 (March 13-20). This steady metronome-like frequency—averaging 37-43 posts daily, including replies and quotes—stems from ongoing engagement on Tesla FSD advancements, Grok updates, and political commentary, as seen in his 71 posts on March 27 alone. Competitive dynamics hinge on daily variability driven by viral moments or breaking news, like potential SpaceX launches or election buzz, which could push toward 340+; absent catalysts, the wisdom of crowds favors sub-300 stability heading into Easter weekend.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于300-319 13%
260-279 12%
280-299 12%
320-339 12%
$2,010,513 交易量
$2,010,513 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
6%
220-239
7%
240-259
11%
260-279
12%
280-299
12%
300-319
13%
320-339
12%
340-359
9%
360-379
8%
380-399
5%
400-419
4%
420-439
2%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
1%
300-319 13%
260-279 12%
280-299 12%
320-339 12%
$2,010,513 交易量
$2,010,513 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
6%
220-239
7%
240-259
11%
260-279
12%
280-299
12%
300-319
13%
320-339
12%
340-359
9%
360-379
8%
380-399
5%
400-419
4%
420-439
2%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Mar 28, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 260-339 tweets for Elon Musk's X posting from March 31 to April 7, with 260-279 edging at 12% implied probability amid razor-thin margins for neighboring ranges, reflecting his consistent recent weekly output of 260-279 posts (March 20-27) and 280-299 (March 13-20). This steady metronome-like frequency—averaging 37-43 posts daily, including replies and quotes—stems from ongoing engagement on Tesla FSD advancements, Grok updates, and political commentary, as seen in his 71 posts on March 27 alone. Competitive dynamics hinge on daily variability driven by viral moments or breaking news, like potential SpaceX launches or election buzz, which could push toward 340+; absent catalysts, the wisdom of crowds favors sub-300 stability heading into Easter weekend.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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