Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual GDP growth at 4.0–5.0% (71%) as the leading outcome, aligning with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.3–4.5% amid structural challenges like a protracted property crisis, declining demographics, and weak domestic consumption. Recent fiscal stimulus—including PBOC rate cuts and record bond sales announced in September 2024—lifted Q3 2024 growth to 4.6% year-over-year, meeting the official 5% target for the year, but traders expect diminishing returns by 2026 alongside export risks from potential U.S. tariffs post-Trump election victory. The 5.0–6.0% band (27%) reflects upside from further policy easing, while sub-4% scenarios remain low-probability absent major deflation or trade shocks, with the National People's Congress set to outline 2025 targets in March.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于4.0–5.0% 71%
5.0–6.0% 26.4%
1.0–2.0% 2.4%
6.0-7.0% 2.4%
$192,686 交易量
$192,686 交易量
Jan 31, 2026
低于1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
2%
2.0–3.0%
1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
71%
5.0–6.0%
26%
6.0-7.0%
2%
7.0–8.0%
2%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%及以上
<1%
4.0–5.0% 71%
5.0–6.0% 26.4%
1.0–2.0% 2.4%
6.0-7.0% 2.4%
$192,686 交易量
$192,686 交易量
Jan 31, 2026
低于1.0%
$16,383 交易量
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$25,913 交易量
2%
2.0–3.0%
$5,093 交易量
1%
3.0–4.0%
$5,820 交易量
1%
4.0–5.0%
$10,318 交易量
71%
5.0–6.0%
$10,712 交易量
26%
6.0-7.0%
$17,665 交易量
2%
7.0–8.0%
$27,858 交易量
2%
8.0–9.0%
$5,390 交易量
1%
9.0%及以上
$67,534 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual GDP growth at 4.0–5.0% (71%) as the leading outcome, aligning with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.3–4.5% amid structural challenges like a protracted property crisis, declining demographics, and weak domestic consumption. Recent fiscal stimulus—including PBOC rate cuts and record bond sales announced in September 2024—lifted Q3 2024 growth to 4.6% year-over-year, meeting the official 5% target for the year, but traders expect diminishing returns by 2026 alongside export risks from potential U.S. tariffs post-Trump election victory. The 5.0–6.0% band (27%) reflects upside from further policy easing, while sub-4% scenarios remain low-probability absent major deflation or trade shocks, with the National People's Congress set to outline 2025 targets in March.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$192,686结束日期
Jan 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual GDP growth at 4.0–5.0% (71%) as the leading outcome, aligning with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.3–4.5% amid structural challenges like a protracted property crisis, declining demographics, and weak domestic consumption. Recent fiscal stimulus—including PBOC rate cuts and record bond sales announced in September 2024—lifted Q3 2024 growth to 4.6% year-over-year, meeting the official 5% target for the year, but traders expect diminishing returns by 2026 alongside export risks from potential U.S. tariffs post-Trump election victory. The 5.0–6.0% band (27%) reflects upside from further policy easing, while sub-4% scenarios remain low-probability absent major deflation or trade shocks, with the National People's Congress set to outline 2025 targets in March.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$192,686结束日期
Jan 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual GDP growth at 4.0–5.0% (71%) as the leading outcome, aligning with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.3–4.5% amid structural challenges like a protracted property crisis, declining demographics, and weak domestic consumption. Recent fiscal stimulus—including PBOC rate cuts and record bond sales announced in September 2024—lifted Q3 2024 growth to 4.6% year-over-year, meeting the official 5% target for the year, but traders expect diminishing returns by 2026 alongside export risks from potential U.S. tariffs post-Trump election victory. The 5.0–6.0% band (27%) reflects upside from further policy easing, while sub-4% scenarios remain low-probability absent major deflation or trade shocks, with the National People's Congress set to outline 2025 targets in March.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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