Following the large-scale US military strikes on January 3, 2026, that captured Nicolás Maduro, trader consensus reflects low near-term risk of another US-initiated drone, missile, or airstrike on Venezuelan soil, driven by recent de-escalation signals including the April 1 sanctions relief on acting President Delcy Rodríguez and the US embassy reopening in Caracas. These steps signal cooperation on oil exports and energy reforms amid post-intervention stabilization efforts. No escalatory military actions or major diplomatic breakdowns have occurred in the past 30 days, though President Trump's warnings of potential larger operations if oil cooperation stalls sustain residual uncertainty through year-end resolution dates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$2,526,387 交易量
2026-01-31
3月31日
1%
12月31日
21%
$2,526,387 交易量
3月31日
$167,745 交易量
1%
12月31日
$485,099 交易量
21%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the large-scale US military strikes on January 3, 2026, that captured Nicolás Maduro, trader consensus reflects low near-term risk of another US-initiated drone, missile, or airstrike on Venezuelan soil, driven by recent de-escalation signals including the April 1 sanctions relief on acting President Delcy Rodríguez and the US embassy reopening in Caracas. These steps signal cooperation on oil exports and energy reforms amid post-intervention stabilization efforts. No escalatory military actions or major diplomatic breakdowns have occurred in the past 30 days, though President Trump's warnings of potential larger operations if oil cooperation stalls sustain residual uncertainty through year-end resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$2,526,387结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the large-scale US military strikes on January 3, 2026, that captured Nicolás Maduro, trader consensus reflects low near-term risk of another US-initiated drone, missile, or airstrike on Venezuelan soil, driven by recent de-escalation signals including the April 1 sanctions relief on acting President Delcy Rodríguez and the US embassy reopening in Caracas. These steps signal cooperation on oil exports and energy reforms amid post-intervention stabilization efforts. No escalatory military actions or major diplomatic breakdowns have occurred in the past 30 days, though President Trump's warnings of potential larger operations if oil cooperation stalls sustain residual uncertainty through year-end resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$2,526,387结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Following the large-scale US military strikes on January 3, 2026, that captured Nicolás Maduro, trader consensus reflects low near-term risk of another US-initiated drone, missile, or airstrike on Venezuelan soil, driven by recent de-escalation signals including the April 1 sanctions relief on acting President Delcy Rodríguez and the US embassy reopening in Caracas. These steps signal cooperation on oil exports and energy reforms amid post-intervention stabilization efforts. No escalatory military actions or major diplomatic breakdowns have occurred in the past 30 days, though President Trump's warnings of potential larger operations if oil cooperation stalls sustain residual uncertainty through year-end resolution dates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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