The U.S. military's January 3, 2026, special operation—featuring airstrikes on Venezuelan air defenses and special forces raids in Caracas—successfully captured former President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, paving the way for Delcy Rodríguez to assume acting leadership. Yesterday's U.S. decision to lift sanctions on Rodríguez marks a sharp diplomatic thaw, easing tensions after early March threats of indictment against her. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for further strikes, driven by this de-escalation and stabilized oil exports, though risks persist from Venezuelan instability, congressional war powers resolutions, or renewed Maduro loyalist resistance. No major military escalations have occurred in the past 30 days.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$2,523,124 交易量
2026-01-31
3月31日
2%
12月31日
23%
$2,523,124 交易量
3月31日
$167,734 交易量
2%
12月31日
$481,846 交易量
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The U.S. military's January 3, 2026, special operation—featuring airstrikes on Venezuelan air defenses and special forces raids in Caracas—successfully captured former President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, paving the way for Delcy Rodríguez to assume acting leadership. Yesterday's U.S. decision to lift sanctions on Rodríguez marks a sharp diplomatic thaw, easing tensions after early March threats of indictment against her. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for further strikes, driven by this de-escalation and stabilized oil exports, though risks persist from Venezuelan instability, congressional war powers resolutions, or renewed Maduro loyalist resistance. No major military escalations have occurred in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$2,523,124结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The U.S. military's January 3, 2026, special operation—featuring airstrikes on Venezuelan air defenses and special forces raids in Caracas—successfully captured former President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, paving the way for Delcy Rodríguez to assume acting leadership. Yesterday's U.S. decision to lift sanctions on Rodríguez marks a sharp diplomatic thaw, easing tensions after early March threats of indictment against her. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for further strikes, driven by this de-escalation and stabilized oil exports, though risks persist from Venezuelan instability, congressional war powers resolutions, or renewed Maduro loyalist resistance. No major military escalations have occurred in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$2,523,124结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
The U.S. military's January 3, 2026, special operation—featuring airstrikes on Venezuelan air defenses and special forces raids in Caracas—successfully captured former President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, paving the way for Delcy Rodríguez to assume acting leadership. Yesterday's U.S. decision to lift sanctions on Rodríguez marks a sharp diplomatic thaw, easing tensions after early March threats of indictment against her. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for further strikes, driven by this de-escalation and stabilized oil exports, though risks persist from Venezuelan instability, congressional war powers resolutions, or renewed Maduro loyalist resistance. No major military escalations have occurred in the past 30 days.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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