Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability to no further U.S. sovereign downgrade before 2027 because Moody’s May 2025 move to Aa1 with a stable outlook completed the shift away from triple-A status across the three major agencies, following S&P’s 2011 and Fitch’s 2023 actions. Persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt-service costs remain well understood, yet the stable outlook reflects the dollar’s reserve-currency status, the economy’s scale, and an independent Federal Reserve—factors that have historically buffered further notches. With no new rating actions or negative watches announced since late 2025, and upcoming debt-ceiling negotiations viewed as routine rather than crisis-level, the market prices in only modest near-term risk of an additional downgrade before resolution in December 2026.