President Trump's recent dismissal of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on March 5, 2026—the first major Cabinet shake-up of his second term—and swift nomination of Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin as replacement signal ongoing administrative control, bolstering trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified legal challenges, health concerns, or official statements suggest an early exit, with historical precedents showing presidents rarely resign during lame-duck periods post-midterms. Speculation from Democratic figures like James Carville, who last week predicted post-November midterm losses could prompt Trump to seek a pardon from Vice President Vance, remains unconfirmed partisan commentary dismissed by markets. Midterm outcomes could introduce investigations, but structural incentives favor serving out the term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$409,410 交易量
$409,410 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$409,410 交易量
$409,410 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's recent dismissal of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on March 5, 2026—the first major Cabinet shake-up of his second term—and swift nomination of Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin as replacement signal ongoing administrative control, bolstering trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified legal challenges, health concerns, or official statements suggest an early exit, with historical precedents showing presidents rarely resign during lame-duck periods post-midterms. Speculation from Democratic figures like James Carville, who last week predicted post-November midterm losses could prompt Trump to seek a pardon from Vice President Vance, remains unconfirmed partisan commentary dismissed by markets. Midterm outcomes could introduce investigations, but structural incentives favor serving out the term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
交易量
$409,410結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's recent dismissal of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on March 5, 2026—the first major Cabinet shake-up of his second term—and swift nomination of Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin as replacement signal ongoing administrative control, bolstering trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified legal challenges, health concerns, or official statements suggest an early exit, with historical precedents showing presidents rarely resign during lame-duck periods post-midterms. Speculation from Democratic figures like James Carville, who last week predicted post-November midterm losses could prompt Trump to seek a pardon from Vice President Vance, remains unconfirmed partisan commentary dismissed by markets. Midterm outcomes could introduce investigations, but structural incentives favor serving out the term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$409,410結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...President Trump's recent dismissal of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on March 5, 2026—the first major Cabinet shake-up of his second term—and swift nomination of Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin as replacement signal ongoing administrative control, bolstering trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified legal challenges, health concerns, or official statements suggest an early exit, with historical precedents showing presidents rarely resign during lame-duck periods post-midterms. Speculation from Democratic figures like James Carville, who last week predicted post-November midterm losses could prompt Trump to seek a pardon from Vice President Vance, remains unconfirmed partisan commentary dismissed by markets. Midterm outcomes could introduce investigations, but structural incentives favor serving out the term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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