Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 shortfall—up from $1.775 trillion in FY2025—with $1 trillion already recorded through February amid surging outlays. Key drivers include extensions of 2017 tax cuts eroding revenue, alongside elevated spending on defense and border security that outpaced tariff-driven income tax gains, as detailed in CBO's February 11 outlook and March 9 monthly review showing a $308 billion February deficit. Consensus anticipates no reversal trajectory through September 2026 resolution, barring unexpected spending cuts, with deficits projected to widen to $3.1 trillion by 2036.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 shortfall—up from $1.775 trillion in FY2025—with $1 trillion already recorded through February amid surging outlays. Key drivers include extensions of 2017 tax cuts eroding revenue, alongside elevated spending on defense and border security that outpaced tariff-driven income tax gains, as detailed in CBO's February 11 outlook and March 9 monthly review showing a $308 billion February deficit. Consensus anticipates no reversal trajectory through September 2026 resolution, barring unexpected spending cuts, with deficits projected to widen to $3.1 trillion by 2036.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
交易量
$385結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 shortfall—up from $1.775 trillion in FY2025—with $1 trillion already recorded through February amid surging outlays. Key drivers include extensions of 2017 tax cuts eroding revenue, alongside elevated spending on defense and border security that outpaced tariff-driven income tax gains, as detailed in CBO's February 11 outlook and March 9 monthly review showing a $308 billion February deficit. Consensus anticipates no reversal trajectory through September 2026 resolution, barring unexpected spending cuts, with deficits projected to widen to $3.1 trillion by 2036.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
交易量
$385結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 shortfall—up from $1.775 trillion in FY2025—with $1 trillion already recorded through February amid surging outlays. Key drivers include extensions of 2017 tax cuts eroding revenue, alongside elevated spending on defense and border security that outpaced tariff-driven income tax gains, as detailed in CBO's February 11 outlook and March 9 monthly review showing a $308 billion February deficit. Consensus anticipates no reversal trajectory through September 2026 resolution, barring unexpected spending cuts, with deficits projected to widen to $3.1 trillion by 2036.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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