Market icon
政治·國會

共和黨會在中期選舉前失去眾議院多數席位嗎？

Market icon
政治·國會

共和黨會在中期選舉前失去眾議院多數席位嗎？

是

16% 機率
Polymarket

$11,022 交易量

是

16% 機率
Polymarket

$11,022 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republicans maintain a narrow House majority at 217-214-1 (with the independent caucusing with Democrats), bolstered by three vacancies in districts unlikely to flip parties, driving the 84.5% "No" trader consensus on losing control before the November 2026 midterms. Recent vacancies stem from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's (R-GA) January resignation, Rep. Doug LaMalfa's (R-CA) death, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill's (D-NJ) November 2025 resignation, but prior 2025 special elections—all in safe partisan seats—retained prior control with no shifts. GA-14's March 10 special advanced to a Republican-favored runoff, while NJ-11 (April 16) and CA-01 (August 4) lean toward their parties; historical special election patterns show rare upsets in non-competitive districts, limiting flip risks absent further resignations or scandals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$11,022
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republicans maintain a narrow House majority at 217-214-1 (with the independent caucusing with Democrats), bolstered by three vacancies in districts unlikely to flip parties, driving the 84.5% "No" trader consensus on losing control before the November 2026 midterms. Recent vacancies stem from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's (R-GA) January resignation, Rep. Doug LaMalfa's (R-CA) death, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill's (D-NJ) November 2025 resignation, but prior 2025 special elections—all in safe partisan seats—retained prior control with no shifts. GA-14's March 10 special advanced to a Republican-favored runoff, while NJ-11 (April 16) and CA-01 (August 4) lean toward their parties; historical special election patterns show rare upsets in non-competitive districts, limiting flip risks absent further resignations or scandals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$11,022
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"共和黨會在中期選舉前失去眾議院多數席位嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "共和黨會在期中選舉前失去眾議院多數席位嗎？" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "共和黨會在中期選舉前失去眾議院多數席位嗎？" has generated $11K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "共和黨會在中期選舉前失去眾議院多數席位嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "共和黨會在中期選舉前失去眾議院多數席位嗎？" is "共和黨會在期中選舉前失去眾議院多數席位嗎？" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "共和黨會在中期選舉前失去眾議院多數席位嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.