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地緣政治·特朗普

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Market icon
地緣政治·特朗普

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

$25,716 交易量

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$25,716 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$15,890 交易量

7%

4月30日

$9,827 交易量

49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid heightened US-Iran tensions from ongoing conflict, recent reports indicate Iran has privately demanded Vice President JD Vance lead any direct negotiations, rejecting envoys like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff as untrustworthy. Over the past week, Trump administration officials, including Vance, have signaled optimism for de-escalation talks, citing Iran's weakened military position after recent strikes as leverage, though Iranian leaders publicly deny active discussions. No confirmed direct meeting between Vance and Iranian negotiators has occurred, leaving trader consensus closely split on timelines like April 30. Upcoming diplomatic channels or escalatory events, such as further military actions or Netanyahu-Trump consultations, could tip probabilities.

Amid heightened US-Iran tensions from ongoing conflict, recent reports indicate Iran has privately demanded Vice President JD Vance lead any direct negotiations, rejecting envoys like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff as untrustworthy. Over the past week, Trump administration officials, including Vance, have signaled optimism for de-escalation talks, citing Iran's weakened military position after recent strikes as leverage, though Iranian leaders publicly deny active discussions. No confirmed direct meeting between Vance and Iranian negotiators has occurred, leaving trader consensus closely split on timelines like April 30. Upcoming diplomatic channels or escalatory events, such as further military actions or Netanyahu-Trump consultations, could tip probabilities.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid heightened US-Iran tensions from ongoing conflict, recent reports indicate Iran has privately demanded Vice President JD Vance lead any direct negotiations, rejecting envoys like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff as untrustworthy. Over the past week, Trump administration officials, including Vance, have signaled optimism for de-escalation talks, citing Iran's weakened military position after recent strikes as leverage, though Iranian leaders publicly deny active discussions. No confirmed direct meeting between Vance and Iranian negotiators has occurred, leaving trader consensus closely split on timelines like April 30. Upcoming diplomatic channels or escalatory events, such as further military actions or Netanyahu-Trump consultations, could tip probabilities.

Amid heightened US-Iran tensions from ongoing conflict, recent reports indicate Iran has privately demanded Vice President JD Vance lead any direct negotiations, rejecting envoys like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff as untrustworthy. Over the past week, Trump administration officials, including Vance, have signaled optimism for de-escalation talks, citing Iran's weakened military position after recent strikes as leverage, though Iranian leaders publicly deny active discussions. No confirmed direct meeting between Vance and Iranian negotiators has occurred, leaving trader consensus closely split on timelines like April 30. Upcoming diplomatic channels or escalatory events, such as further military actions or Netanyahu-Trump consultations, could tip probabilities.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4月30日" at 49%, followed by "3月31日" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" has generated $25.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" is "4月30日" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3月31日" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.