Trader consensus strongly favors NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at 98% implied probability following White House confirmation of his upcoming visit amid U.S. pressure on allies to address Strait of Hormuz disruptions tied to Operation Epic Fury against Iran. High odds for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (72%) and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer (66%) stem from recent bilateral readouts and Middle East diplomacy needs, including potential Hormuz coalition talks. Emmanuel Macron (53%) and Elon Musk (53%) reflect scheduled engagements, while lower probabilities for Xi Jinping (31%), Vladimir Putin (42%), and Kim Jong Un (4%) highlight barriers from ongoing tensions without announced summits. No verified April talks reported through April 4; markets await readouts through April 30.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$67,294 交易量

Mark Rutte
98%

Mark Carney
95%

Mohammed bin Salman
72%

Keir Starmer
66%

Emmanuel Macron
51%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
48%

埃隆·馬斯克
53%

Vladimir Putin
41%

Ursula von der Leyen
36%

Friedrich Merz
47%

Xi Jinping
31%

Maria Corina Machado
30%

Ahmed al-Sharaa
15%

Lula da Silva
9%

Masoud Pezeshkian
7%

Reza Pahlavi
6%

Kim Jong Un
4%

Nicolás Maduro
3%

Yoon Suk Yeol
1%
$67,294 交易量

Mark Rutte
98%

Mark Carney
95%

Mohammed bin Salman
72%

Keir Starmer
66%

Emmanuel Macron
51%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
48%

埃隆·馬斯克
53%

Vladimir Putin
41%

Ursula von der Leyen
36%

Friedrich Merz
47%

Xi Jinping
31%

Maria Corina Machado
30%

Ahmed al-Sharaa
15%

Lula da Silva
9%

Masoud Pezeshkian
7%

Reza Pahlavi
6%

Kim Jong Un
4%

Nicolás Maduro
3%

Yoon Suk Yeol
1%
A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at 98% implied probability following White House confirmation of his upcoming visit amid U.S. pressure on allies to address Strait of Hormuz disruptions tied to Operation Epic Fury against Iran. High odds for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (72%) and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer (66%) stem from recent bilateral readouts and Middle East diplomacy needs, including potential Hormuz coalition talks. Emmanuel Macron (53%) and Elon Musk (53%) reflect scheduled engagements, while lower probabilities for Xi Jinping (31%), Vladimir Putin (42%), and Kim Jong Un (4%) highlight barriers from ongoing tensions without announced summits. No verified April talks reported through April 4; markets await readouts through April 30.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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