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政治·伊朗

誰將在6月30日前進入伊朗？

Market icon
政治·伊朗

誰將在6月30日前進入伊朗？

$244,477 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$244,477 交易量

Polymarket

任何美國眾議院議員

$52,061 交易量

7%

Pete Hegseth

$48,315 交易量

6%

任何美國參議員

$21,668 交易量

6%

賈里德·庫什納

$11,940 交易量

5%

馬可·魯比奧

$11,989 交易量

5%

JD Vance

$8,001 交易量

3%

本雅明·內塔尼亞胡

$32,360 交易量

3%

唐納德·川普

$58,143 交易量

2%

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran entering their sixth week, with no ground forces yet entering Iranian territory, trader consensus reflects slim odds—7% for any serving US House member, 6% for any US Senator, and 2-7% for figures like Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth, Jared Kushner, Marco Rubio, JD Vance, or Benjamin Netanyahu—of any physically crossing into Iran by June 30. Recent deployments of US Marines and A-10 aircraft signal preparation for potential limited ground operations by late April, amid Trump's vows to seize oil fields and degrade IRGC capabilities, but active hostilities and Iranian mobilization pose major barriers to diplomatic visits. A swift regime collapse or ceasefire could shift dynamics, though escalation remains the dominant risk.

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$244,477
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran entering their sixth week, with no ground forces yet entering Iranian territory, trader consensus reflects slim odds—7% for any serving US House member, 6% for any US Senator, and 2-7% for figures like Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth, Jared Kushner, Marco Rubio, JD Vance, or Benjamin Netanyahu—of any physically crossing into Iran by June 30. Recent deployments of US Marines and A-10 aircraft signal preparation for potential limited ground operations by late April, amid Trump's vows to seize oil fields and degrade IRGC capabilities, but active hostilities and Iranian mobilization pose major barriers to diplomatic visits. A swift regime collapse or ceasefire could shift dynamics, though escalation remains the dominant risk.

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$244,477
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"誰將在6月30日前進入伊朗？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "任何美國眾議院議員" at 7%, followed by "Pete Hegseth" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "誰將在6月30日前進入伊朗？" has generated $244.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "誰將在6月30日前進入伊朗？," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "誰將在6月30日前進入伊朗？" is "任何美國眾議院議員" at just 7%, with "Pete Hegseth" close behind at 6%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "誰將在6月30日前進入伊朗？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.