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政治·初選

紐約-17民主黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
政治·初選

紐約-17民主黨初選獲勝者

凱特·康利 60%

貝絲·戴維森 19%

彼得·查茨基 13.3%

Effie Phillips-Staley 4.8%

Polymarket

$49,880 交易量

凱特·康利 60%

貝絲·戴維森 19%

彼得·查茨基 13.3%

Effie Phillips-Staley 4.8%

Polymarket

$49,880 交易量

凱特·康利

$25,142 交易量

60%

貝絲·戴維森

$21,514 交易量

19%

彼得·查茨基

$2,530 交易量

13%

Effie Phillips-Staley

$0 交易量

5%

約翰·卡佩羅

$0 交易量

3%

麥克·薩克斯

$0 交易量

2%

約翰·沙利文

$0 交易量

1%

潔西卡·萊因曼

$693 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-17 Democratic primary market prices Cait Conley as the frontrunner at 59.5%, driven by her decorated Army combat veteran background, national security expertise, and recent endorsements including Rep. Jason Crow and the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund on March 3, positioning her for strength against GOP incumbent Mike Lawler in this toss-up Hudson Valley district. A February 24-26 Impact Research poll of 400 likely primary voters (MOE ±4.9%) showed Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson ahead 23%-17% with higher name ID (41%) amid 45% undecideds, yet traders diverge from this early snapshot, emphasizing Conley's electability. Self-funder Peter Chatzky's 13.3% odds weakened after a March 19 New York Times exposé on his decade-old bawdy Facebook posts sparked dropout calls. Filing deadline: April 6; primary: June 23.

Trader consensus in the NY-17 Democratic primary market prices Cait Conley as the frontrunner at 59.5%, driven by her decorated Army combat veteran background, national security expertise, and recent endorsements including Rep. Jason Crow and the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund on March 3, positioning her for strength against GOP incumbent Mike Lawler in this toss-up Hudson Valley district. A February 24-26 Impact Research poll of 400 likely primary voters (MOE ±4.9%) showed Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson ahead 23%-17% with higher name ID (41%) amid 45% undecideds, yet traders diverge from this early snapshot, emphasizing Conley's electability. Self-funder Peter Chatzky's 13.3% odds weakened after a March 19 New York Times exposé on his decade-old bawdy Facebook posts sparked dropout calls. Filing deadline: April 6; primary: June 23.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-17 Democratic primary market prices Cait Conley as the frontrunner at 59.5%, driven by her decorated Army combat veteran background, national security expertise, and recent endorsements including Rep. Jason Crow and the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund on March 3, positioning her for strength against GOP incumbent Mike Lawler in this toss-up Hudson Valley district. A February 24-26 Impact Research poll of 400 likely primary voters (MOE ±4.9%) showed Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson ahead 23%-17% with higher name ID (41%) amid 45% undecideds, yet traders diverge from this early snapshot, emphasizing Conley's electability. Self-funder Peter Chatzky's 13.3% odds weakened after a March 19 New York Times exposé on his decade-old bawdy Facebook posts sparked dropout calls. Filing deadline: April 6; primary: June 23.

Trader consensus in the NY-17 Democratic primary market prices Cait Conley as the frontrunner at 59.5%, driven by her decorated Army combat veteran background, national security expertise, and recent endorsements including Rep. Jason Crow and the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund on March 3, positioning her for strength against GOP incumbent Mike Lawler in this toss-up Hudson Valley district. A February 24-26 Impact Research poll of 400 likely primary voters (MOE ±4.9%) showed Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson ahead 23%-17% with higher name ID (41%) amid 45% undecideds, yet traders diverge from this early snapshot, emphasizing Conley's electability. Self-funder Peter Chatzky's 13.3% odds weakened after a March 19 New York Times exposé on his decade-old bawdy Facebook posts sparked dropout calls. Filing deadline: April 6; primary: June 23.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"紐約-17民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "凱特·康利" at 60%, followed by "貝絲·戴維森" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "紐約-17民主黨初選獲勝者" has generated $49.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "紐約-17民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "紐約-17民主黨初選獲勝者" is "凱特·康利" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "貝絲·戴維森" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "紐約-17民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.