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NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

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選舉·主要

NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Laura Gillen 74%

Nicholas Sciretta 14%

Taylor Darling 5.7%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Laura Gillen 74%

Nicholas Sciretta 14%

Taylor Darling 5.7%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Laura Gillen

$2,844 交易量

74%

Nicholas Sciretta

$0 交易量

18%

Taylor Darling

$0 交易量

6%

Gian Jones

$1,362 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen commands 74% trader consensus in the NY-04 Democratic primary due to her strong incumbency advantage in the closed primary system, bolstered by over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025—dwarfing challengers like Nicholas Sciretta ($7 raised) and Taylor Darling (no reported funds). Gillen's narrow 2024 general election victory in the D+2 swing district provides name recognition and momentum. Recent challenger Taylor Darling's February entry, criticizing Gillen's vote to boost ICE funding, has generated progressive pushback but failed to shift odds amid her fundraising gap. State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement adds uncertainty, with candidate filing deadline April 6 ahead of the June 23 primary.

Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen commands 74% trader consensus in the NY-04 Democratic primary due to her strong incumbency advantage in the closed primary system, bolstered by over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025—dwarfing challengers like Nicholas Sciretta ($7 raised) and Taylor Darling (no reported funds). Gillen's narrow 2024 general election victory in the D+2 swing district provides name recognition and momentum. Recent challenger Taylor Darling's February entry, criticizing Gillen's vote to boost ICE funding, has generated progressive pushback but failed to shift odds amid her fundraising gap. State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement adds uncertainty, with candidate filing deadline April 6 ahead of the June 23 primary.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen commands 74% trader consensus in the NY-04 Democratic primary due to her strong incumbency advantage in the closed primary system, bolstered by over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025—dwarfing challengers like Nicholas Sciretta ($7 raised) and Taylor Darling (no reported funds). Gillen's narrow 2024 general election victory in the D+2 swing district provides name recognition and momentum. Recent challenger Taylor Darling's February entry, criticizing Gillen's vote to boost ICE funding, has generated progressive pushback but failed to shift odds amid her fundraising gap. State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement adds uncertainty, with candidate filing deadline April 6 ahead of the June 23 primary.

Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen commands 74% trader consensus in the NY-04 Democratic primary due to her strong incumbency advantage in the closed primary system, bolstered by over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025—dwarfing challengers like Nicholas Sciretta ($7 raised) and Taylor Darling (no reported funds). Gillen's narrow 2024 general election victory in the D+2 swing district provides name recognition and momentum. Recent challenger Taylor Darling's February entry, criticizing Gillen's vote to boost ICE funding, has generated progressive pushback but failed to shift odds amid her fundraising gap. State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement adds uncertainty, with candidate filing deadline April 6 ahead of the June 23 primary.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Laura Gillen" at 74%, followed by "Nicholas Sciretta" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 1, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Laura Gillen" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nicholas Sciretta" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.