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政治·主要

誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？

Market icon
政治·主要

誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？

$336,431 交易量

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$336,431 交易量

Polymarket

埃里克·斯沃威爾

$10,970 交易量

65%

史蒂夫·希爾頓

$4,123 交易量

63%

查德·比安科

$0 交易量

36%

湯姆·斯泰爾

$17,340 交易量

28%

Elaine Culotti

$0 交易量

18%

Matt Mahan

$10,057 交易量

17%

凱蒂·波特

$0 交易量

18%

哈維爾·貝塞拉

$2,973 交易量

8%

貝蒂·易

$2,629 交易量

6%

Tony Thurmond

$966 交易量

6%

Ché Ahn

$14,574 交易量

5%

David Thelen

$750 交易量

5%

Sharifah Hardie

$0 交易量

4%

吉米·帕克

$0 交易量

4%

安東尼奧·維亞拉戈薩

$11,452 交易量

4%

Dylan Colbert

$13,295 交易量

3%

丹尼爾·梅庫里

$8,309 交易量

3%

尼姬·米娜

$0 交易量

3%

Derek Grasty

$1,039 交易量

3%

Ryan Tillman

$1,012 交易量

3%

Leo Zacky

$0 交易量

2%

大衛·瑟帕

$0 交易量

2%

Javen Allen

$0 交易量

10%

Leonard Jackson

$0 交易量

2%

拉吉·拉布

$0 交易量

2%

伊桑·阿加瓦爾

$2,470 交易量

2%

卡羅琳娜·布勒

$0 交易量

2%

Kyle Langford

$0 交易量

2%

尼古拉斯·湯普森

$0 交易量

2%

Butch Ware

$0 交易量

2%

佐爾坦·伊斯特萬

$11,334 交易量

2%

拉姆齊·羅賓遜

$0 交易量

1%

雷霆·帕利

$48,880 交易量

1%

布蘭登·瓊斯

$33,473 交易量

1%

伊恩·卡爾德龍

$103,033 交易量

1%

蘇菲亞·布林克

$37,751 交易量

1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 for the open governor seat vacated by term-limited Gavin Newsom, Polymarket trader consensus favors Republican Steve Hilton (67% implied probability) and Democrat Eric Swalwell (66%) to advance from a fragmented 30+ candidate field. Recent March polls, including Berkeley IGS (Hilton 17%, Bianco 16%) and Echelon Insights (Hilton 20%, Swalwell 15%), highlight a GOP surge fueled by Democratic vote-splitting among eight contenders like Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (36%), amid voter frustration with housing costs, homelessness, and crime. High undecideds (16-25%) signal volatility, with endorsements, debates, or spending poised to tip battleground dynamics before resolution.

In California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 for the open governor seat vacated by term-limited Gavin Newsom, Polymarket trader consensus favors Republican Steve Hilton (67% implied probability) and Democrat Eric Swalwell (66%) to advance from a fragmented 30+ candidate field. Recent March polls, including Berkeley IGS (Hilton 17%, Bianco 16%) and Echelon Insights (Hilton 20%, Swalwell 15%), highlight a GOP surge fueled by Democratic vote-splitting among eight contenders like Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (36%), amid voter frustration with housing costs, homelessness, and crime. High undecideds (16-25%) signal volatility, with endorsements, debates, or spending poised to tip battleground dynamics before resolution.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 for the open governor seat vacated by term-limited Gavin Newsom, Polymarket trader consensus favors Republican Steve Hilton (67% implied probability) and Democrat Eric Swalwell (66%) to advance from a fragmented 30+ candidate field. Recent March polls, including Berkeley IGS (Hilton 17%, Bianco 16%) and Echelon Insights (Hilton 20%, Swalwell 15%), highlight a GOP surge fueled by Democratic vote-splitting among eight contenders like Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (36%), amid voter frustration with housing costs, homelessness, and crime. High undecideds (16-25%) signal volatility, with endorsements, debates, or spending poised to tip battleground dynamics before resolution.

In California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 for the open governor seat vacated by term-limited Gavin Newsom, Polymarket trader consensus favors Republican Steve Hilton (67% implied probability) and Democrat Eric Swalwell (66%) to advance from a fragmented 30+ candidate field. Recent March polls, including Berkeley IGS (Hilton 17%, Bianco 16%) and Echelon Insights (Hilton 20%, Swalwell 15%), highlight a GOP surge fueled by Democratic vote-splitting among eight contenders like Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (36%), amid voter frustration with housing costs, homelessness, and crime. High undecideds (16-25%) signal volatility, with endorsements, debates, or spending poised to tip battleground dynamics before resolution.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "埃里克·斯沃威爾" at 65%, followed by "史蒂夫·希爾頓" at 63%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？" has generated $336.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？" is "埃里克·斯沃威爾" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "史蒂夫·希爾頓" at 63%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.