Trader consensus heavily favors no Trump-Putin summit by June 30 (81.5%), driven by the absence of any confirmed venue, date, or itinerary despite recent phone discussions between the leaders in early 2025. Official statements from both sides highlight preconditions like Ukraine ceasefire progress and mutual scheduling constraints, with no breakthroughs announced amid NATO tensions and U.S. sanctions. Low odds on alternatives—such as other EU countries (3.0%) or Gulf states (1.8%)—reflect historical neutral-site patterns like Helsinki 2018 but underscore current diplomatic frictions and inauguration aftermath logistics, positioning a near-term meeting as improbable without sudden catalysts like G7 outcomes or bilateral breakthroughs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於6月30日之前沒有會面 81.5%
其他歐盟國家 3.0%
其他 2.5%
美國 2.4%
$2,429,848 交易量
$2,429,848 交易量

6月30日之前沒有會面
81%

其他歐盟國家
3%

其他
2%

美國
2%

海灣國家
2%

中國
2%

俄羅斯
1%

土耳其
1%

白俄羅斯
1%

瑞士
1%

日本
<1%

南韓
<1%

芬蘭
<1%

烏克蘭
<1%

澳洲
<1%
6月30日之前沒有會面 81.5%
其他歐盟國家 3.0%
其他 2.5%
美國 2.4%
$2,429,848 交易量
$2,429,848 交易量

6月30日之前沒有會面
81%

其他歐盟國家
3%

其他
2%

美國
2%

海灣國家
2%

中國
2%

俄羅斯
1%

土耳其
1%

白俄羅斯
1%

瑞士
1%

日本
<1%

南韓
<1%

芬蘭
<1%

烏克蘭
<1%

澳洲
<1%
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間: Sep 30, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors no Trump-Putin summit by June 30 (81.5%), driven by the absence of any confirmed venue, date, or itinerary despite recent phone discussions between the leaders in early 2025. Official statements from both sides highlight preconditions like Ukraine ceasefire progress and mutual scheduling constraints, with no breakthroughs announced amid NATO tensions and U.S. sanctions. Low odds on alternatives—such as other EU countries (3.0%) or Gulf states (1.8%)—reflect historical neutral-site patterns like Helsinki 2018 but underscore current diplomatic frictions and inauguration aftermath logistics, positioning a near-term meeting as improbable without sudden catalysts like G7 outcomes or bilateral breakthroughs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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