Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$53,027 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
52%
Ras Tanura
40%
Al Zour Refinery
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
25%
East–West Pipeline
20%
Khurais Field
20%
Safaniya Field
19%
Leviathan Field
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
11%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$53,027 交易量
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,298 交易量
52%
Ras Tanura
$4,317 交易量
40%
Al Zour Refinery
$0 交易量
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$3,163 交易量
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$6,228 交易量
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$1,865 交易量
26%
Ghawar Field
$532 交易量
25%
East–West Pipeline
$4,923 交易量
20%
Khurais Field
$4,354 交易量
20%
Safaniya Field
$1,228 交易量
19%
Leviathan Field
$1,511 交易量
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$559 交易量
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$12,719 交易量
11%
Burj Khalifa
$330 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
市場開放時間： Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$53,027結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
交易量
$53,027結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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