Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91% implied probability to retain Virginia's 9th Congressional District in the November 3, 2026, general election, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Morgan Griffith's strong track record since 2010 and the district's solid Republican lean in southwest Virginia. Griffith, who cruised to victory in 2024, faces no announced primary challengers, while Democrats field a contested primary among lesser-known candidates like Adam Murphy and Joy Powers, lacking high-profile recruits or polling traction. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with recent Griffith activity focused on constituent services like Service Academy Day events. Upsets could arise from an unexpected retirement, personal scandal, health issues, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats, though historical base rates for such safe seats suggest low risk.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
91%
民主黨
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
$0 交易量
91%
民主黨
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91% implied probability to retain Virginia's 9th Congressional District in the November 3, 2026, general election, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Morgan Griffith's strong track record since 2010 and the district's solid Republican lean in southwest Virginia. Griffith, who cruised to victory in 2024, faces no announced primary challengers, while Democrats field a contested primary among lesser-known candidates like Adam Murphy and Joy Powers, lacking high-profile recruits or polling traction. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with recent Griffith activity focused on constituent services like Service Academy Day events. Upsets could arise from an unexpected retirement, personal scandal, health issues, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats, though historical base rates for such safe seats suggest low risk.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91% implied probability to retain Virginia's 9th Congressional District in the November 3, 2026, general election, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Morgan Griffith's strong track record since 2010 and the district's solid Republican lean in southwest Virginia. Griffith, who cruised to victory in 2024, faces no announced primary challengers, while Democrats field a contested primary among lesser-known candidates like Adam Murphy and Joy Powers, lacking high-profile recruits or polling traction. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with recent Griffith activity focused on constituent services like Service Academy Day events. Upsets could arise from an unexpected retirement, personal scandal, health issues, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats, though historical base rates for such safe seats suggest low risk.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91% implied probability to retain Virginia's 9th Congressional District in the November 3, 2026, general election, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Morgan Griffith's strong track record since 2010 and the district's solid Republican lean in southwest Virginia. Griffith, who cruised to victory in 2024, faces no announced primary challengers, while Democrats field a contested primary among lesser-known candidates like Adam Murphy and Joy Powers, lacking high-profile recruits or polling traction. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with recent Griffith activity focused on constituent services like Service Academy Day events. Upsets could arise from an unexpected retirement, personal scandal, health issues, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats, though historical base rates for such safe seats suggest low risk.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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