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政治·伊朗

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

Market icon
政治·伊朗

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

43% 機率
Polymarket

$87,586 交易量

43% 機率
Polymarket

$87,586 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50. If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time. 1. Trump visits China For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 2. US x Iran ceasefire For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and escalating military actions in their month-long conflict, traders price a 57.5% implied probability against any truce before President Trump's summit with Xi Jinping on May 14-15, rescheduled from late March due to the war. Iran rejected a US 15-point peace plan on March 24-25, demanding Strait of Hormuz sovereignty, while Trump insists on its reopening as a precondition and dismissed Tehran's alleged requests. Mediators reported talks at a dead end on April 3, followed by Iran's downing of a US F-15 jet on April 4, signaling persistent airstrikes and diplomatic impasse driving the "No" consensus.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China.

This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.

If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50.

If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time.

1. Trump visits China

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2. US x Iran ceasefire

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.

If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$87,586
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50. If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time. 1. Trump visits China For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 2. US x Iran ceasefire For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50. If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time. 1. Trump visits China For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 2. US x Iran ceasefire For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and escalating military actions in their month-long conflict, traders price a 57.5% implied probability against any truce before President Trump's summit with Xi Jinping on May 14-15, rescheduled from late March due to the war. Iran rejected a US 15-point peace plan on March 24-25, demanding Strait of Hormuz sovereignty, while Trump insists on its reopening as a precondition and dismissed Tehran's alleged requests. Mediators reported talks at a dead end on April 3, followed by Iran's downing of a US F-15 jet on April 4, signaling persistent airstrikes and diplomatic impasse driving the "No" consensus.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China.

This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.

If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50.

If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time.

1. Trump visits China

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2. US x Iran ceasefire

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.

If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$87,586
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50. If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time. 1. Trump visits China For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 2. US x Iran ceasefire For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 43% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 43¢, the market collectively assigns a 43% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?" has generated $87.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?" is 43% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 43% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.