Incumbent Republican Chip Roy holds a commanding lead in Texas's 21st Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan lean of R+14, driving trader consensus to 82.5% for the GOP in the November 5 general election. Recent district polling, including surveys from early October, shows Roy ahead by 25-30 points against Democratic challenger Jenny Naranjo, bolstered by his primary win in March and superior fundraising. No major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days—early voting began October 21 with steady Republican turnout expected in this low-enthusiasm cycle. While scandals or national coattails could theoretically narrow the gap, historical precedents in safe districts like TX-21 favor the incumbent's path to victory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
83%
民主黨
12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
$7,489 交易量
83%
民主黨
$0 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chip Roy holds a commanding lead in Texas's 21st Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan lean of R+14, driving trader consensus to 82.5% for the GOP in the November 5 general election. Recent district polling, including surveys from early October, shows Roy ahead by 25-30 points against Democratic challenger Jenny Naranjo, bolstered by his primary win in March and superior fundraising. No major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days—early voting began October 21 with steady Republican turnout expected in this low-enthusiasm cycle. While scandals or national coattails could theoretically narrow the gap, historical precedents in safe districts like TX-21 favor the incumbent's path to victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$7,489結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chip Roy holds a commanding lead in Texas's 21st Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan lean of R+14, driving trader consensus to 82.5% for the GOP in the November 5 general election. Recent district polling, including surveys from early October, shows Roy ahead by 25-30 points against Democratic challenger Jenny Naranjo, bolstered by his primary win in March and superior fundraising. No major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days—early voting began October 21 with steady Republican turnout expected in this low-enthusiasm cycle. While scandals or national coattails could theoretically narrow the gap, historical precedents in safe districts like TX-21 favor the incumbent's path to victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$7,489結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Chip Roy holds a commanding lead in Texas's 21st Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan lean of R+14, driving trader consensus to 82.5% for the GOP in the November 5 general election. Recent district polling, including surveys from early October, shows Roy ahead by 25-30 points against Democratic challenger Jenny Naranjo, bolstered by his primary win in March and superior fundraising. No major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days—early voting began October 21 with steady Republican turnout expected in this low-enthusiasm cycle. While scandals or national coattails could theoretically narrow the gap, historical precedents in safe districts like TX-21 favor the incumbent's path to victory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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