Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% implied probability for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, driven by the absence of any official proposal or bill in parliament three months into the year. Despite AKP insider Şamil Tayyar's October 2025 signal of late-2026 preparations tied to a Kurdish peace process and Deputy Speaker Bekir Bozdağ's February 2026 prediction of steps enabling President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's re-election bid, the AKP-MHP coalition holds only about 321 of 600 seats in the Grand National Assembly—short of the 360-vote supermajority needed to call a referendum on amendments or snap elections under Article 116. Economic pressures, opposition resistance, and polls showing 66% against term extensions have stalled momentum, with speculation shifting to potential early general elections instead. Upcoming parliamentary sessions could alter odds if a bill emerges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% implied probability for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, driven by the absence of any official proposal or bill in parliament three months into the year. Despite AKP insider Şamil Tayyar's October 2025 signal of late-2026 preparations tied to a Kurdish peace process and Deputy Speaker Bekir Bozdağ's February 2026 prediction of steps enabling President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's re-election bid, the AKP-MHP coalition holds only about 321 of 600 seats in the Grand National Assembly—short of the 360-vote supermajority needed to call a referendum on amendments or snap elections under Article 116. Economic pressures, opposition resistance, and polls showing 66% against term extensions have stalled momentum, with speculation shifting to potential early general elections instead. Upcoming parliamentary sessions could alter odds if a bill emerges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$241結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% implied probability for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, driven by the absence of any official proposal or bill in parliament three months into the year. Despite AKP insider Şamil Tayyar's October 2025 signal of late-2026 preparations tied to a Kurdish peace process and Deputy Speaker Bekir Bozdağ's February 2026 prediction of steps enabling President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's re-election bid, the AKP-MHP coalition holds only about 321 of 600 seats in the Grand National Assembly—short of the 360-vote supermajority needed to call a referendum on amendments or snap elections under Article 116. Economic pressures, opposition resistance, and polls showing 66% against term extensions have stalled momentum, with speculation shifting to potential early general elections instead. Upcoming parliamentary sessions could alter odds if a bill emerges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$241結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% implied probability for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, driven by the absence of any official proposal or bill in parliament three months into the year. Despite AKP insider Şamil Tayyar's October 2025 signal of late-2026 preparations tied to a Kurdish peace process and Deputy Speaker Bekir Bozdağ's February 2026 prediction of steps enabling President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's re-election bid, the AKP-MHP coalition holds only about 321 of 600 seats in the Grand National Assembly—short of the 360-vote supermajority needed to call a referendum on amendments or snap elections under Article 116. Economic pressures, opposition resistance, and polls showing 66% against term extensions have stalled momentum, with speculation shifting to potential early general elections instead. Upcoming parliamentary sessions could alter odds if a bill emerges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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