United Russia's commanding trader consensus stems from its entrenched dominance as the incumbent party in Russia's State Duma, bolstered by control over state media, administrative resources, and a mixed electoral system favoring single-member constituencies alongside party-list proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent March polls from FOM and WCIOM show ER support steady at 29–41% for party lists amid inflation pressures, yet Kremlin preparations—including a January campaign launch headlined by figures like Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Lavrov, plus intensified propaganda on social initiatives—reinforce expectations of a supermajority similar to 2021's 324 seats. Opposition faces arrests and hurdles, with no credible challengers emerging. Scenarios to upend this include a severe economic crisis, major military reversal in Ukraine, or elite defection, though structural barriers render them improbable ahead of the September 20 vote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於統一俄羅斯（ER） 95.5%
新人物黨（NL） 1.3%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF） 1.0%
公民平台（GP） 1.0%
$892,963 交易量
$892,963 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
統一俄羅斯（ER）
96%
新人物黨（NL）
1%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF）
1%
公民平台（GP）
1%
俄羅斯自由民主黨（LDPR）
1%
公正俄羅斯－為了真理黨（SRZP）
<1%
羅迪納
<1%
統一俄羅斯（ER） 95.5%
新人物黨（NL） 1.3%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF） 1.0%
公民平台（GP） 1.0%
$892,963 交易量
$892,963 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
統一俄羅斯（ER）
$469,728 交易量
96%
新人物黨（NL）
$34,657 交易量
1%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF）
$77,105 交易量
1%
公民平台（GP）
$76,335 交易量
1%
俄羅斯自由民主黨（LDPR）
$31,501 交易量
1%
公正俄羅斯－為了真理黨（SRZP）
$128,790 交易量
<1%
羅迪納
$74,847 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding trader consensus stems from its entrenched dominance as the incumbent party in Russia's State Duma, bolstered by control over state media, administrative resources, and a mixed electoral system favoring single-member constituencies alongside party-list proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent March polls from FOM and WCIOM show ER support steady at 29–41% for party lists amid inflation pressures, yet Kremlin preparations—including a January campaign launch headlined by figures like Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Lavrov, plus intensified propaganda on social initiatives—reinforce expectations of a supermajority similar to 2021's 324 seats. Opposition faces arrests and hurdles, with no credible challengers emerging. Scenarios to upend this include a severe economic crisis, major military reversal in Ukraine, or elite defection, though structural barriers render them improbable ahead of the September 20 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市場開放時間： Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
交易量
$892,963結束日期
Sep 20, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding trader consensus stems from its entrenched dominance as the incumbent party in Russia's State Duma, bolstered by control over state media, administrative resources, and a mixed electoral system favoring single-member constituencies alongside party-list proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent March polls from FOM and WCIOM show ER support steady at 29–41% for party lists amid inflation pressures, yet Kremlin preparations—including a January campaign launch headlined by figures like Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Lavrov, plus intensified propaganda on social initiatives—reinforce expectations of a supermajority similar to 2021's 324 seats. Opposition faces arrests and hurdles, with no credible challengers emerging. Scenarios to upend this include a severe economic crisis, major military reversal in Ukraine, or elite defection, though structural barriers render them improbable ahead of the September 20 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$892,963結束日期
Sep 20, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's commanding trader consensus stems from its entrenched dominance as the incumbent party in Russia's State Duma, bolstered by control over state media, administrative resources, and a mixed electoral system favoring single-member constituencies alongside party-list proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent March polls from FOM and WCIOM show ER support steady at 29–41% for party lists amid inflation pressures, yet Kremlin preparations—including a January campaign launch headlined by figures like Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Lavrov, plus intensified propaganda on social initiatives—reinforce expectations of a supermajority similar to 2021's 324 seats. Opposition faces arrests and hurdles, with no credible challengers emerging. Scenarios to upend this include a severe economic crisis, major military reversal in Ukraine, or elite defection, though structural barriers render them improbable ahead of the September 20 vote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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