Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) securing 10 or more National Assembly seats in the June 3, 2026, by-elections, with 8-9 seats a close second, reflecting the party's commanding national polls at 43-45% support versus the People Power Party's (PPP) 17-22% as of late March. Recent April 1 surveys show DP candidates leading by double digits—up to 16 points—in pivotal Seoul and Busan mayoral races within the concurrent local elections, signaling broad momentum amid PPP nomination turmoil, including the en masse resignation of its committee just days ago. DP's advantages stem from President Lee Jae-myung's stable approval, regional dominance outside conservative strongholds, and historical precedents for ruling-party sweeps in aligned local and by-elections, though undecided voters and 63 days remain could influence outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於10+ 56.8%
8-9 37.7%
6-7 4.0%
4-5 <1%
$21,510 交易量
$21,510 交易量
0-1
<1%
2-3
<1%
4-5
1%
6-7
4%
8-9
38%
10+
57%
10+ 56.8%
8-9 37.7%
6-7 4.0%
4-5 <1%
$21,510 交易量
$21,510 交易量
0-1
<1%
2-3
<1%
4-5
1%
6-7
4%
8-9
38%
10+
57%
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
市場開放時間: Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) securing 10 or more National Assembly seats in the June 3, 2026, by-elections, with 8-9 seats a close second, reflecting the party's commanding national polls at 43-45% support versus the People Power Party's (PPP) 17-22% as of late March. Recent April 1 surveys show DP candidates leading by double digits—up to 16 points—in pivotal Seoul and Busan mayoral races within the concurrent local elections, signaling broad momentum amid PPP nomination turmoil, including the en masse resignation of its committee just days ago. DP's advantages stem from President Lee Jae-myung's stable approval, regional dominance outside conservative strongholds, and historical precedents for ruling-party sweeps in aligned local and by-elections, though undecided voters and 63 days remain could influence outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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