Incumbent House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' commanding position in solidly Democratic New York's 8th congressional district—spanning parts of Brooklyn and Queens—drives trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House election. The district's strong partisan lean, Jeffries' history of landslide victories exceeding 70% margins, and absence of a credible Republican nominee underpin this dominance, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments amid early-cycle calm. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with primaries set for June 23. Realistic challenges include a bruising Democratic primary—such as progressive Councilman Chi Ossé's exploratory bid from late 2025 gaining unexpected traction—weakening the nominee, or a massive national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 交易量
93%
Republican Party
$7,488 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' commanding position in solidly Democratic New York's 8th congressional district—spanning parts of Brooklyn and Queens—drives trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House election. The district's strong partisan lean, Jeffries' history of landslide victories exceeding 70% margins, and absence of a credible Republican nominee underpin this dominance, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments amid early-cycle calm. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with primaries set for June 23. Realistic challenges include a bruising Democratic primary—such as progressive Councilman Chi Ossé's exploratory bid from late 2025 gaining unexpected traction—weakening the nominee, or a massive national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
交易量
$7,488結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' commanding position in solidly Democratic New York's 8th congressional district—spanning parts of Brooklyn and Queens—drives trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House election. The district's strong partisan lean, Jeffries' history of landslide victories exceeding 70% margins, and absence of a credible Republican nominee underpin this dominance, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments amid early-cycle calm. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with primaries set for June 23. Realistic challenges include a bruising Democratic primary—such as progressive Councilman Chi Ossé's exploratory bid from late 2025 gaining unexpected traction—weakening the nominee, or a massive national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$7,488結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' commanding position in solidly Democratic New York's 8th congressional district—spanning parts of Brooklyn and Queens—drives trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House election. The district's strong partisan lean, Jeffries' history of landslide victories exceeding 70% margins, and absence of a credible Republican nominee underpin this dominance, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments amid early-cycle calm. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with primaries set for June 23. Realistic challenges include a bruising Democratic primary—such as progressive Councilman Chi Ossé's exploratory bid from late 2025 gaining unexpected traction—weakening the nominee, or a massive national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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