Political fragmentation following France's 2024 snap legislative elections, which produced a hung parliament and two government collapses, keeps trader consensus tight in the 2027 presidential race, with National Rally's Jordan Bardella at 26% implied first-round probability ahead of Édouard Philippe's 18.5%. No dominant successor to President Macron has emerged amid low approval ratings and economic pressures like inflation and debt. The far-right holds momentum from EU poll gains but faces Marine Le Pen's ongoing embezzlement trial, while Philippe's center-right Horizons party appeals to moderates wary of extremes. Left-wing figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon lag due to internal divisions. Key catalysts for separation include trial verdicts, fresh polls, budget votes, or Macron's potential endorsements by mid-2025.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於喬丹·巴爾德拉 27%
埃杜阿爾·菲利普 19%
讓-呂克·梅朗雄 10%
瑪琳·勒龐 8%
$16,624,413 交易量
$16,624,413 交易量

喬丹·巴爾德拉
27%

埃杜阿爾·菲利普
19%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄
10%

瑪琳·勒龐
8%

多米尼克·德維爾潘
7%

拉斐爾·格呂克斯曼
4%

布魯諾·赫泰約
4%

莎拉·克納福
3%

讓·卡斯泰
3%

弗朗索瓦·奧朗德
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科努
2%

大衛·利斯納爾
2%

熱拉爾·達爾馬寧
1%

埃里克·澤穆爾
1%

胡安·布蘭科
1%

貝爾納·卡澤納夫
1%

瑪琳·通德列
1%

弗朗索瓦·魯芬
1%

伊莉莎白·博爾內
<1%

洛朗·瓦奎茲
<1%

曼努埃爾·邦帕爾
<1%

澤維耶·貝特朗
<1%

奧利維耶·福爾
<1%

弗朗索瓦·貝魯
<1%

卡羅爾·德爾加
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

法比恩·魯塞爾
<1%

弗朗索瓦·阿斯利諾
<1%

尼古拉·杜邦-艾尼昂
<1%

瓦萊麗·佩克雷斯
<1%

塞格琳·羅亞爾
<1%

克萊芙蒂娜·奧坦
<1%

米歇爾·巴尼耶
<1%

馬蒂爾德·帕諾
<1%

克蕾芙絲·蓋特
<1%
喬丹·巴爾德拉 27%
埃杜阿爾·菲利普 19%
讓-呂克·梅朗雄 10%
瑪琳·勒龐 8%
$16,624,413 交易量
$16,624,413 交易量

喬丹·巴爾德拉
27%

埃杜阿爾·菲利普
19%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄
10%

瑪琳·勒龐
8%

多米尼克·德維爾潘
7%

拉斐爾·格呂克斯曼
4%

布魯諾·赫泰約
4%

莎拉·克納福
3%

讓·卡斯泰
3%

弗朗索瓦·奧朗德
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科努
2%

大衛·利斯納爾
2%

熱拉爾·達爾馬寧
1%

埃里克·澤穆爾
1%

胡安·布蘭科
1%

貝爾納·卡澤納夫
1%

瑪琳·通德列
1%

弗朗索瓦·魯芬
1%

伊莉莎白·博爾內
<1%

洛朗·瓦奎茲
<1%

曼努埃爾·邦帕爾
<1%

澤維耶·貝特朗
<1%

奧利維耶·福爾
<1%

弗朗索瓦·貝魯
<1%

卡羅爾·德爾加
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

法比恩·魯塞爾
<1%

弗朗索瓦·阿斯利諾
<1%

尼古拉·杜邦-艾尼昂
<1%

瓦萊麗·佩克雷斯
<1%

塞格琳·羅亞爾
<1%

克萊芙蒂娜·奧坦
<1%

米歇爾·巴尼耶
<1%

馬蒂爾德·帕諾
<1%

克蕾芙絲·蓋特
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
市場開放時間: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Political fragmentation following France's 2024 snap legislative elections, which produced a hung parliament and two government collapses, keeps trader consensus tight in the 2027 presidential race, with National Rally's Jordan Bardella at 26% implied first-round probability ahead of Édouard Philippe's 18.5%. No dominant successor to President Macron has emerged amid low approval ratings and economic pressures like inflation and debt. The far-right holds momentum from EU poll gains but faces Marine Le Pen's ongoing embezzlement trial, while Philippe's center-right Horizons party appeals to moderates wary of extremes. Left-wing figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon lag due to internal divisions. Key catalysts for separation include trial verdicts, fresh polls, budget votes, or Macron's potential endorsements by mid-2025.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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