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選舉·主要

紐約州州長共和黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
選舉·主要

紐約州州長共和黨初選獲勝者

布魯斯·布萊克曼 92%

帕特·哈恩 3.8%

伊莉絲·斯特凡尼克 1.9%

大衛·塔利 1.3%

Polymarket
NEW

布魯斯·布萊克曼 92%

帕特·哈恩 3.8%

伊莉絲·斯特凡尼克 1.9%

大衛·塔利 1.3%

Polymarket
NEW

布魯斯·布萊克曼

$0 交易量

92%

帕特·哈恩

$0 交易量

4%

伊莉絲·斯特凡尼克

$0 交易量

2%

大衛·塔利

$6,144 交易量

1%

貝琪·麥考伊

$1,826 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Bruce Blakeman's commanding 91.5% implied probability in the New York Republican gubernatorial primary stems from his formal designation as the party nominee at the state GOP convention on February 11, followed by the Conservative Party endorsement days later, positioning him as the establishment choice ahead of the June 23 primary.** With the candidate filing deadline on April 6 approaching and no high-profile challengers emerging—despite earlier speculation around figures like Rep. Elise Stefanik—traders reflect the wisdom of crowds in pricing a near-certain path, bolstered by Blakeman's proven success as Nassau County Executive. Scenarios to shift odds include a late credible entrant gaining endorsements, a major scandal, or internal party fractures, though historical patterns favor endorsed candidates in uncontested or low-contention New York GOP primaries. Recent general election polls showing Blakeman competitive against Gov. Kathy Hochul further affirm his momentum without impacting primary dynamics.

**Bruce Blakeman's commanding 91.5% implied probability in the New York Republican gubernatorial primary stems from his formal designation as the party nominee at the state GOP convention on February 11, followed by the Conservative Party endorsement days later, positioning him as the establishment choice ahead of the June 23 primary.** With the candidate filing deadline on April 6 approaching and no high-profile challengers emerging—despite earlier speculation around figures like Rep. Elise Stefanik—traders reflect the wisdom of crowds in pricing a near-certain path, bolstered by Blakeman's proven success as Nassau County Executive. Scenarios to shift odds include a late credible entrant gaining endorsements, a major scandal, or internal party fractures, though historical patterns favor endorsed candidates in uncontested or low-contention New York GOP primaries. Recent general election polls showing Blakeman competitive against Gov. Kathy Hochul further affirm his momentum without impacting primary dynamics.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Bruce Blakeman's commanding 91.5% implied probability in the New York Republican gubernatorial primary stems from his formal designation as the party nominee at the state GOP convention on February 11, followed by the Conservative Party endorsement days later, positioning him as the establishment choice ahead of the June 23 primary.** With the candidate filing deadline on April 6 approaching and no high-profile challengers emerging—despite earlier speculation around figures like Rep. Elise Stefanik—traders reflect the wisdom of crowds in pricing a near-certain path, bolstered by Blakeman's proven success as Nassau County Executive. Scenarios to shift odds include a late credible entrant gaining endorsements, a major scandal, or internal party fractures, though historical patterns favor endorsed candidates in uncontested or low-contention New York GOP primaries. Recent general election polls showing Blakeman competitive against Gov. Kathy Hochul further affirm his momentum without impacting primary dynamics.

**Bruce Blakeman's commanding 91.5% implied probability in the New York Republican gubernatorial primary stems from his formal designation as the party nominee at the state GOP convention on February 11, followed by the Conservative Party endorsement days later, positioning him as the establishment choice ahead of the June 23 primary.** With the candidate filing deadline on April 6 approaching and no high-profile challengers emerging—despite earlier speculation around figures like Rep. Elise Stefanik—traders reflect the wisdom of crowds in pricing a near-certain path, bolstered by Blakeman's proven success as Nassau County Executive. Scenarios to shift odds include a late credible entrant gaining endorsements, a major scandal, or internal party fractures, though historical patterns favor endorsed candidates in uncontested or low-contention New York GOP primaries. Recent general election polls showing Blakeman competitive against Gov. Kathy Hochul further affirm his momentum without impacting primary dynamics.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"紐約州州長共和黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "布魯斯·布萊克曼" at 92%, followed by "帕特·哈恩" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"紐約州州長共和黨初選獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 4, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "紐約州州長共和黨初選獲勝者," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "紐約州州長共和黨初選獲勝者" is "布魯斯·布萊克曼" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "帕特·哈恩" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "紐約州州長共和黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.