Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal on March 4, 2026—mere minutes before Montana's filing deadline—opened the seat but bolstered GOP frontrunner Kurt Alme, his handpicked U.S. Attorney successor backed by President Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Tim Sheehy. This maneuver, while drawing bipartisan criticism and prompting forecasters like Inside Elections to shift the rating from Solid to Likely Republican on March 10, has reinforced trader consensus at 82% for a Republican victory in the November 3 general election. Early February polls showed Daines dominating Democratic hopefuls like Reilly Neill (55%-37%) and independent Seth Bodnar (51%-42% in three-way), with no post-shift surveys altering that dynamic; Bodnar's bid risks splitting anti-GOP votes amid a weak Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 primaries. Montana's strong Republican lean, including Trump's 20-point 2024 win, underpins the lopsided pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$38,679 交易量
$38,679 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
82%
民主黨
9%
$38,679 交易量
$38,679 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
$23,971 交易量
82%
民主黨
$14,708 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal on March 4, 2026—mere minutes before Montana's filing deadline—opened the seat but bolstered GOP frontrunner Kurt Alme, his handpicked U.S. Attorney successor backed by President Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Tim Sheehy. This maneuver, while drawing bipartisan criticism and prompting forecasters like Inside Elections to shift the rating from Solid to Likely Republican on March 10, has reinforced trader consensus at 82% for a Republican victory in the November 3 general election. Early February polls showed Daines dominating Democratic hopefuls like Reilly Neill (55%-37%) and independent Seth Bodnar (51%-42% in three-way), with no post-shift surveys altering that dynamic; Bodnar's bid risks splitting anti-GOP votes amid a weak Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 primaries. Montana's strong Republican lean, including Trump's 20-point 2024 win, underpins the lopsided pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$38,679結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal on March 4, 2026—mere minutes before Montana's filing deadline—opened the seat but bolstered GOP frontrunner Kurt Alme, his handpicked U.S. Attorney successor backed by President Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Tim Sheehy. This maneuver, while drawing bipartisan criticism and prompting forecasters like Inside Elections to shift the rating from Solid to Likely Republican on March 10, has reinforced trader consensus at 82% for a Republican victory in the November 3 general election. Early February polls showed Daines dominating Democratic hopefuls like Reilly Neill (55%-37%) and independent Seth Bodnar (51%-42% in three-way), with no post-shift surveys altering that dynamic; Bodnar's bid risks splitting anti-GOP votes amid a weak Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 primaries. Montana's strong Republican lean, including Trump's 20-point 2024 win, underpins the lopsided pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$38,679結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal on March 4, 2026—mere minutes before Montana's filing deadline—opened the seat but bolstered GOP frontrunner Kurt Alme, his handpicked U.S. Attorney successor backed by President Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Tim Sheehy. This maneuver, while drawing bipartisan criticism and prompting forecasters like Inside Elections to shift the rating from Solid to Likely Republican on March 10, has reinforced trader consensus at 82% for a Republican victory in the November 3 general election. Early February polls showed Daines dominating Democratic hopefuls like Reilly Neill (55%-37%) and independent Seth Bodnar (51%-42% in three-way), with no post-shift surveys altering that dynamic; Bodnar's bid risks splitting anti-GOP votes amid a weak Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 primaries. Montana's strong Republican lean, including Trump's 20-point 2024 win, underpins the lopsided pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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