Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95.5%, anchored by the absence of any major de-escalatory developments over the past 30 days. Direct strikes have remained dormant since Israel's limited October airstrikes on Iranian military sites, which both sides downplayed to avert broader war, while Iran-backed proxies like Houthis and Hezbollah sustain intermittent attacks on U.S. and Israeli targets in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. No ceasefire negotiations, summits, or restraint announcements have materialized, upholding mutual deterrence. Odds could shift with a provocative Iranian escalation prompting retaliation or surprise diplomatic breakthroughs via backchannels.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於軍事行動至3月31日 96%
3月31日 1.9%
3月30日 1.2%
3月29日 <1%
$2,636,862 交易量
$2,636,862 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3月26日
<1%
3月27日
<1%
3月28日
<1%
3月29日
<1%
3月30日
1%
3月31日
2%
軍事行動至3月31日
96%
軍事行動至3月31日 96%
3月31日 1.9%
3月30日 1.2%
3月29日 <1%
$2,636,862 交易量
$2,636,862 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3月26日
$326,382 交易量
<1%
3月27日
$340,372 交易量
<1%
3月28日
$348,513 交易量
<1%
3月29日
$279,036 交易量
<1%
3月30日
$279,569 交易量
1%
3月31日
$370,151 交易量
2%
軍事行動至3月31日
$560,217 交易量
96%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95.5%, anchored by the absence of any major de-escalatory developments over the past 30 days. Direct strikes have remained dormant since Israel's limited October airstrikes on Iranian military sites, which both sides downplayed to avert broader war, while Iran-backed proxies like Houthis and Hezbollah sustain intermittent attacks on U.S. and Israeli targets in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. No ceasefire negotiations, summits, or restraint announcements have materialized, upholding mutual deterrence. Odds could shift with a provocative Iranian escalation prompting retaliation or surprise diplomatic breakthroughs via backchannels.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
交易量
$2,636,862結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95.5%, anchored by the absence of any major de-escalatory developments over the past 30 days. Direct strikes have remained dormant since Israel's limited October airstrikes on Iranian military sites, which both sides downplayed to avert broader war, while Iran-backed proxies like Houthis and Hezbollah sustain intermittent attacks on U.S. and Israeli targets in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. No ceasefire negotiations, summits, or restraint announcements have materialized, upholding mutual deterrence. Odds could shift with a provocative Iranian escalation prompting retaliation or surprise diplomatic breakthroughs via backchannels.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,636,862結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95.5%, anchored by the absence of any major de-escalatory developments over the past 30 days. Direct strikes have remained dormant since Israel's limited October airstrikes on Iranian military sites, which both sides downplayed to avert broader war, while Iran-backed proxies like Houthis and Hezbollah sustain intermittent attacks on U.S. and Israeli targets in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. No ceasefire negotiations, summits, or restraint announcements have materialized, upholding mutual deterrence. Odds could shift with a provocative Iranian escalation prompting retaliation or surprise diplomatic breakthroughs via backchannels.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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