US and Israeli forces maintain high-tempo airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear facilities like the Arak heavy-water plant and major industrial sites, as Iran retaliates with missile and drone barrages on US bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding 12 troops—and Israel, joined today by Yemen's Houthis launching strikes on Israeli territory. Key recent drivers include Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal two days ago, Israel's killing of Iran's navy chief, and Pentagon claims that Tehran lacks a navy amid ongoing operations now three weeks old. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled an expected end in weeks, not months, but persistent exchanges sustain uncertainty; traders monitor diplomatic talks, potential ground troop deployments, and escalation risks ahead of any de-escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$192,505 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
2%
March 31
4%
4月15日
27%
4月30日
57%
5月31日
77%
6月30日
92%
$192,505 交易量
March 29
$27,535 交易量
1%
March 30
$22,269 交易量
2%
March 31
$77,812 交易量
4%
4月15日
$3,077 交易量
27%
4月30日
$1,014 交易量
57%
5月31日
$1,772 交易量
77%
6月30日
$7 交易量
92%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces maintain high-tempo airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear facilities like the Arak heavy-water plant and major industrial sites, as Iran retaliates with missile and drone barrages on US bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding 12 troops—and Israel, joined today by Yemen's Houthis launching strikes on Israeli territory. Key recent drivers include Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal two days ago, Israel's killing of Iran's navy chief, and Pentagon claims that Tehran lacks a navy amid ongoing operations now three weeks old. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled an expected end in weeks, not months, but persistent exchanges sustain uncertainty; traders monitor diplomatic talks, potential ground troop deployments, and escalation risks ahead of any de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$192,505結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces maintain high-tempo airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear facilities like the Arak heavy-water plant and major industrial sites, as Iran retaliates with missile and drone barrages on US bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding 12 troops—and Israel, joined today by Yemen's Houthis launching strikes on Israeli territory. Key recent drivers include Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal two days ago, Israel's killing of Iran's navy chief, and Pentagon claims that Tehran lacks a navy amid ongoing operations now three weeks old. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled an expected end in weeks, not months, but persistent exchanges sustain uncertainty; traders monitor diplomatic talks, potential ground troop deployments, and escalation risks ahead of any de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$192,505結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
US and Israeli forces maintain high-tempo airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear facilities like the Arak heavy-water plant and major industrial sites, as Iran retaliates with missile and drone barrages on US bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding 12 troops—and Israel, joined today by Yemen's Houthis launching strikes on Israeli territory. Key recent drivers include Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal two days ago, Israel's killing of Iran's navy chief, and Pentagon claims that Tehran lacks a navy amid ongoing operations now three weeks old. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled an expected end in weeks, not months, but persistent exchanges sustain uncertainty; traders monitor diplomatic talks, potential ground troop deployments, and escalation risks ahead of any de-escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions