US-Israel airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets, now nearly a month into the conflict since late February 2026, have significantly degraded Tehran's ballistic missile, drone, and naval capabilities, per CENTCOM assessments, driving trader expectations of a near-term de-escalation. Recent Iranian retaliation—including a missile strike wounding 10-12 US troops at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base on March 27 and Houthi attacks on Israel—has sustained tensions, while President Trump's extension of a Strait of Hormuz reopening deadline by 10 days and pause on energy infrastructure strikes signal diplomatic progress. Secretary Rubio stated operations will last weeks, not months, without ground troops, though Iran has hardened its stance amid ongoing exchanges, with potential ceasefire talks looming.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$192,347 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
2%
March 31
4%
4月15日
27%
4月30日
56%
5月31日
76%
6月30日
85%
$192,347 交易量
March 29
$27,535 交易量
1%
March 30
$22,269 交易量
2%
March 31
$77,714 交易量
4%
4月15日
$3,077 交易量
27%
4月30日
$1,011 交易量
56%
5月31日
$1,718 交易量
76%
6月30日
$5 交易量
85%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets, now nearly a month into the conflict since late February 2026, have significantly degraded Tehran's ballistic missile, drone, and naval capabilities, per CENTCOM assessments, driving trader expectations of a near-term de-escalation. Recent Iranian retaliation—including a missile strike wounding 10-12 US troops at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base on March 27 and Houthi attacks on Israel—has sustained tensions, while President Trump's extension of a Strait of Hormuz reopening deadline by 10 days and pause on energy infrastructure strikes signal diplomatic progress. Secretary Rubio stated operations will last weeks, not months, without ground troops, though Iran has hardened its stance amid ongoing exchanges, with potential ceasefire talks looming.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
交易量
$192,347結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets, now nearly a month into the conflict since late February 2026, have significantly degraded Tehran's ballistic missile, drone, and naval capabilities, per CENTCOM assessments, driving trader expectations of a near-term de-escalation. Recent Iranian retaliation—including a missile strike wounding 10-12 US troops at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base on March 27 and Houthi attacks on Israel—has sustained tensions, while President Trump's extension of a Strait of Hormuz reopening deadline by 10 days and pause on energy infrastructure strikes signal diplomatic progress. Secretary Rubio stated operations will last weeks, not months, without ground troops, though Iran has hardened its stance amid ongoing exchanges, with potential ceasefire talks looming.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$192,347結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israel airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets, now nearly a month into the conflict since late February 2026, have significantly degraded Tehran's ballistic missile, drone, and naval capabilities, per CENTCOM assessments, driving trader expectations of a near-term de-escalation. Recent Iranian retaliation—including a missile strike wounding 10-12 US troops at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base on March 27 and Houthi attacks on Israel—has sustained tensions, while President Trump's extension of a Strait of Hormuz reopening deadline by 10 days and pause on energy infrastructure strikes signal diplomatic progress. Secretary Rubio stated operations will last weeks, not months, without ground troops, though Iran has hardened its stance amid ongoing exchanges, with potential ceasefire talks looming.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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