馬克龍出局時間是... ？

Name: 馬克龍出局時間是... ？
Start: 2025-01-03T19:35:04.095Z
End: 2026-06-30T12:00:00.000Z

馬克龍出局時間是... ？ — 討論

Lepolo · 2025-01-03T19:35:04.095Z

關於馬克龍出局時間是... ？的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

政治·法國

馬克龍出局時間是... ？

$1,876,943 交易量

Jun 30, 2026

2026年6月30日

$285,099 交易量

$1,876,943 交易量

2026年6月30日

$285,099 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

French President Emmanuel Macron faces ongoing political deadlock after snap legislative elections produced a hung parliament, leading to Prime Minister Michel Barnier's ouster via no-confidence vote on December 4, 2024, and François Bayrou's appointment on December 13. Macron has repeatedly affirmed he will serve his full term until 2027, ruling out early resignation or new dissolution until summer 2025. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability for his near-term exit, buoyed by Bayrou's centrist profile aiding budget negotiations. Key upcoming catalysts include the 2025 finance bill vote in January and potential fresh no-confidence motions, amid persistently low approval ratings hovering around 30%. Historical precedents from prior Fifth Republic crises suggest resilience absent economic collapse.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 21, 2026, 10:16 PM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"馬克龍出局時間是... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年6月30日" at 3%, followed by "2025年10月31日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 3¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 3% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "馬克龍出局時間是... ？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" is "2026年6月30日" at just 3%, with "2025年10月31日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "馬克龍出局時間是... ？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.9 million traded on “馬克龍出局時間是... ？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "馬克龍出局時間是... ？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 3¢ for "2026年6月30日" in the "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 3% chance that "2026年6月30日" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 3¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 97¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 30, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" market has an active community of 88 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "馬克龍出局時間是... ？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

馬克龍出局時間是... ？

馬克龍出局時間是... ？

規則

盤口背景

盤口背景

評論 (88)

頂級持倉者

持倉

動態

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "馬克龍出局時間是... ？"?

What are the current odds for "馬克龍出局時間是... ？"?

How will "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" be resolved?

Can I follow "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "馬克龍出局時間是... ？"?

What does a price of 3¢ for "2026年6月30日" mean?

When does the "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" market close?

What are traders saying about "馬克龍出局時間是... ？"?

What is Polymarket?