Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party, amplified by the absence of any Republican candidates after the February 13, 2026, filing deadline, which canceled the GOP primary. This ensures the Democratic primary winner—Carter versus challenger Renada Collins in the May 16 closed partisan primary—advances unopposed to the November 3 general election in this D+17 district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The majority-Black, New Orleans-anchored seat's entrenched Democratic lean, bolstered by Carter's incumbency clout, underpins the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a viable GOP write-in effort, primary upset disqualifying Carter, or unforeseen scandal, though structural barriers render these low-probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主黨
94%
共和黨
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主黨
$0 交易量
94%
共和黨
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party, amplified by the absence of any Republican candidates after the February 13, 2026, filing deadline, which canceled the GOP primary. This ensures the Democratic primary winner—Carter versus challenger Renada Collins in the May 16 closed partisan primary—advances unopposed to the November 3 general election in this D+17 district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The majority-Black, New Orleans-anchored seat's entrenched Democratic lean, bolstered by Carter's incumbency clout, underpins the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a viable GOP write-in effort, primary upset disqualifying Carter, or unforeseen scandal, though structural barriers render these low-probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party, amplified by the absence of any Republican candidates after the February 13, 2026, filing deadline, which canceled the GOP primary. This ensures the Democratic primary winner—Carter versus challenger Renada Collins in the May 16 closed partisan primary—advances unopposed to the November 3 general election in this D+17 district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The majority-Black, New Orleans-anchored seat's entrenched Democratic lean, bolstered by Carter's incumbency clout, underpins the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a viable GOP write-in effort, primary upset disqualifying Carter, or unforeseen scandal, though structural barriers render these low-probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party, amplified by the absence of any Republican candidates after the February 13, 2026, filing deadline, which canceled the GOP primary. This ensures the Democratic primary winner—Carter versus challenger Renada Collins in the May 16 closed partisan primary—advances unopposed to the November 3 general election in this D+17 district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The majority-Black, New Orleans-anchored seat's entrenched Democratic lean, bolstered by Carter's incumbency clout, underpins the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a viable GOP write-in effort, primary upset disqualifying Carter, or unforeseen scandal, though structural barriers render these low-probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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