Market icon
政治·主要

KY-06共和黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
政治·主要

KY-06共和黨初選獲勝者

Ralph Alvarado 51%

Adam Perez Arquette 23.1%

Ryan Dotson 19.5%

Greg Plucinski 6%

Polymarket

$16,557 交易量

Ralph Alvarado 51%

Adam Perez Arquette 23.1%

Ryan Dotson 19.5%

Greg Plucinski 6%

Polymarket

$16,557 交易量

Ralph Alvarado

$6,254 交易量

51%

Adam Perez Arquette

$1,344 交易量

23%

Ryan Dotson

$7,645 交易量

13%

Greg Plucinski

$561 交易量

6%

Gavin Solomon

$753 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ralph Alvarado leads trader consensus at 50.5% implied probability in the open KY-06 Republican primary—sparked by Rep. Andy Barr's Senate bid—as his prior statewide exposure from the 2019 lieutenant governor nomination and state Senate service provide strong name recognition and establishment appeal. Recent endorsements, including Scott County Judge-Executive Joe Pat Covington's on April 1 praising Alvarado's constituent services record, alongside Woodford County GOP backing in March, bolster his position ahead of the May 19 closed primary. Adam Perez Arquette trails at 23.2% despite leading FEC fundraising with over $1.6 million cash on hand through late 2025, hampered by death threats prompting event cancellations last week and polarizing stances on issues like Jeffrey Epstein. State Rep. Ryan Dotson holds 13.8% on conservative credentials from a February debate with Alvarado, while fragmented support keeps the field competitive absent public polls.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$16,557
結束日期
2026-05-19
市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ralph Alvarado leads trader consensus at 50.5% implied probability in the open KY-06 Republican primary—sparked by Rep. Andy Barr's Senate bid—as his prior statewide exposure from the 2019 lieutenant governor nomination and state Senate service provide strong name recognition and establishment appeal. Recent endorsements, including Scott County Judge-Executive Joe Pat Covington's on April 1 praising Alvarado's constituent services record, alongside Woodford County GOP backing in March, bolster his position ahead of the May 19 closed primary. Adam Perez Arquette trails at 23.2% despite leading FEC fundraising with over $1.6 million cash on hand through late 2025, hampered by death threats prompting event cancellations last week and polarizing stances on issues like Jeffrey Epstein. State Rep. Ryan Dotson holds 13.8% on conservative credentials from a February debate with Alvarado, while fragmented support keeps the field competitive absent public polls.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$16,557
結束日期
2026-05-19
市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"KY-06共和黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ralph Alvarado" at 51%, followed by "Adam Perez Arquette" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "KY-06共和黨初選獲勝者" has generated $16.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "KY-06共和黨初選獲勝者," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "KY-06共和黨初選獲勝者" is "Ralph Alvarado" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Adam Perez Arquette" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "KY-06共和黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.