Market icon
地緣政治·中東

以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？

Market icon
地緣政治·中東

以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？

$95,910 交易量

2026-04-30
Polymarket

$95,910 交易量

Polymarket

4月30日

$61,332 交易量

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Israeli ground operations against Hezbollah remain limited to southern Lebanon, with IDF troops advancing 8-10 kilometers into border villages as of April 2, recapturing areas previously held before the 2024 ceasefire and signaling plans to occupy up to the Litani River, about 30 kilometers south of Beirut. Airstrikes have intensified on Beirut's southern suburbs, killing a senior Hezbollah commander on April 1 and causing civilian evacuations, but no verified incursions place Israeli forces in the capital. The conflict, sparked by Hezbollah rocket barrages on March 2, reflects Israel's aim to degrade militant infrastructure amid guerrilla pushback, Lebanese government disarmament orders, and uncertain diplomatic off-ramps, leaving trader consensus weighing escalation risks against logistical barriers to a northern push.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$95,910
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 16, 2026, 8:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Israeli ground operations against Hezbollah remain limited to southern Lebanon, with IDF troops advancing 8-10 kilometers into border villages as of April 2, recapturing areas previously held before the 2024 ceasefire and signaling plans to occupy up to the Litani River, about 30 kilometers south of Beirut. Airstrikes have intensified on Beirut's southern suburbs, killing a senior Hezbollah commander on April 1 and causing civilian evacuations, but no verified incursions place Israeli forces in the capital. The conflict, sparked by Hezbollah rocket barrages on March 2, reflects Israel's aim to degrade militant infrastructure amid guerrilla pushback, Lebanese government disarmament orders, and uncertain diplomatic off-ramps, leaving trader consensus weighing escalation risks against logistical barriers to a northern push.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$95,910
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 16, 2026, 8:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4月30日" at 9%, followed by "3月31日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？" has generated $95.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？" is "4月30日" at just 9%, with "3月31日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.