The US-Israel air campaign against Iran, now one month old since surprise strikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, continues with daily airstrikes on ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and IRGC-linked industries, while Iran launches retaliatory missiles and drones at Israel and US regional bases. Tehran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement, proxy cessation, and Strait of Hormuz access—countering with five conditions including attack halts and reparations, stalling mediation efforts despite White House threats of escalation. Ongoing Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon and Houthi involvement broaden risks, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over imminent ceasefire amid no ground troop commitments and potential Pakistani-hosted talks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$8,114,991 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
3月31日
1%
4月15日
15%
4月7日
6%
4月30日
35%
5月15日
45%
6月30日
64%
12月31日
84%
$8,114,991 交易量
3月31日
$4,271,840 交易量
1%
4月15日
$909,281 交易量
15%
4月7日
$94,881 交易量
6%
4月30日
$664,673 交易量
35%
5月15日
$1,167,928 交易量
45%
6月30日
$806,785 交易量
64%
12月31日
$199,982 交易量
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel air campaign against Iran, now one month old since surprise strikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, continues with daily airstrikes on ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and IRGC-linked industries, while Iran launches retaliatory missiles and drones at Israel and US regional bases. Tehran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement, proxy cessation, and Strait of Hormuz access—countering with five conditions including attack halts and reparations, stalling mediation efforts despite White House threats of escalation. Ongoing Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon and Houthi involvement broaden risks, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over imminent ceasefire amid no ground troop commitments and potential Pakistani-hosted talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
市場開放時間： Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
交易量
$8,114,991結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel air campaign against Iran, now one month old since surprise strikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, continues with daily airstrikes on ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and IRGC-linked industries, while Iran launches retaliatory missiles and drones at Israel and US regional bases. Tehran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement, proxy cessation, and Strait of Hormuz access—countering with five conditions including attack halts and reparations, stalling mediation efforts despite White House threats of escalation. Ongoing Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon and Houthi involvement broaden risks, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over imminent ceasefire amid no ground troop commitments and potential Pakistani-hosted talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$8,114,991結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel air campaign against Iran, now one month old since surprise strikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, continues with daily airstrikes on ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and IRGC-linked industries, while Iran launches retaliatory missiles and drones at Israel and US regional bases. Tehran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement, proxy cessation, and Strait of Hormuz access—countering with five conditions including attack halts and reparations, stalling mediation efforts despite White House threats of escalation. Ongoing Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon and Houthi involvement broaden risks, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over imminent ceasefire amid no ground troop commitments and potential Pakistani-hosted talks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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