Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles—have defined the latest direct escalation, with Iran reporting limited damage and casualties while vowing proportional response. No further tit-for-tat strikes have materialized in the past two weeks, as U.S. diplomacy pushes de-escalation amid Israel's intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both Iranian proxies. Trader consensus reflects Iran's preference for proxy warfare over direct confrontation, tempered by risks of broader regional conflict; upcoming triggers include potential Israeli ground incursions, UN Security Council sessions on Gaza ceasefire, and Iranian parliamentary debates on retaliation thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$518,486 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 23
42%
March 27
91%
March 28
84%
March 29
84%
March 30
86%
March 31
78%
$518,486 交易量
March 23
$243,953 交易量
42%
March 27
$37,900 交易量
91%
March 28
$4,134 交易量
84%
March 29
$5,578 交易量
84%
March 30
$3,234 交易量
86%
March 31
$3,305 交易量
78%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles—have defined the latest direct escalation, with Iran reporting limited damage and casualties while vowing proportional response. No further tit-for-tat strikes have materialized in the past two weeks, as U.S. diplomacy pushes de-escalation amid Israel's intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both Iranian proxies. Trader consensus reflects Iran's preference for proxy warfare over direct confrontation, tempered by risks of broader regional conflict; upcoming triggers include potential Israeli ground incursions, UN Security Council sessions on Gaza ceasefire, and Iranian parliamentary debates on retaliation thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
交易量
$518,486結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles—have defined the latest direct escalation, with Iran reporting limited damage and casualties while vowing proportional response. No further tit-for-tat strikes have materialized in the past two weeks, as U.S. diplomacy pushes de-escalation amid Israel's intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both Iranian proxies. Trader consensus reflects Iran's preference for proxy warfare over direct confrontation, tempered by risks of broader regional conflict; upcoming triggers include potential Israeli ground incursions, UN Security Council sessions on Gaza ceasefire, and Iranian parliamentary debates on retaliation thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$518,486結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles—have defined the latest direct escalation, with Iran reporting limited damage and casualties while vowing proportional response. No further tit-for-tat strikes have materialized in the past two weeks, as U.S. diplomacy pushes de-escalation amid Israel's intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both Iranian proxies. Trader consensus reflects Iran's preference for proxy warfare over direct confrontation, tempered by risks of broader regional conflict; upcoming triggers include potential Israeli ground incursions, UN Security Council sessions on Gaza ceasefire, and Iranian parliamentary debates on retaliation thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions