Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller secured the GOP nomination in the March 17, 2026, Illinois 15th Congressional District primary, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Republicans reflects the district's Solid Republican rating by Cook Political Report, rooted in its rural southern Illinois base where Donald Trump carried over 70% in recent cycles, combined with Miller's incumbency advantage and fundraising edge exceeding $1 million. No recent polls show competitive general election dynamics, reinforcing the lopsided odds. Scenarios to shift this include a major scandal involving Miller, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates for such deep-red districts favor strong reelection.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$0 交易量
95%
Democratic Party
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller secured the GOP nomination in the March 17, 2026, Illinois 15th Congressional District primary, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Republicans reflects the district's Solid Republican rating by Cook Political Report, rooted in its rural southern Illinois base where Donald Trump carried over 70% in recent cycles, combined with Miller's incumbency advantage and fundraising edge exceeding $1 million. No recent polls show competitive general election dynamics, reinforcing the lopsided odds. Scenarios to shift this include a major scandal involving Miller, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates for such deep-red districts favor strong reelection.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller secured the GOP nomination in the March 17, 2026, Illinois 15th Congressional District primary, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Republicans reflects the district's Solid Republican rating by Cook Political Report, rooted in its rural southern Illinois base where Donald Trump carried over 70% in recent cycles, combined with Miller's incumbency advantage and fundraising edge exceeding $1 million. No recent polls show competitive general election dynamics, reinforcing the lopsided odds. Scenarios to shift this include a major scandal involving Miller, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates for such deep-red districts favor strong reelection.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller secured the GOP nomination in the March 17, 2026, Illinois 15th Congressional District primary, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Republicans reflects the district's Solid Republican rating by Cook Political Report, rooted in its rural southern Illinois base where Donald Trump carried over 70% in recent cycles, combined with Miller's incumbency advantage and fundraising edge exceeding $1 million. No recent polls show competitive general election dynamics, reinforcing the lopsided odds. Scenarios to shift this include a major scandal involving Miller, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates for such deep-red districts favor strong reelection.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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