Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran before April 30, reflecting a recent lull in verified strikes despite heightened tensions in the ongoing Iran conflict. Iranian forces deliberately hit at least two civilian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11, prompting U.S. Central Command to destroy an entire class of Iranian warships and intensify patrols, degrading Tehran's naval retaliatory capacity. Yemen's Houthis, Iran's key proxy, launched ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28—marking their war entry—but have refrained from Red Sea shipping attacks for over three weeks amid U.S. airstrikes and a post-ceasefire pause since late 2025. No sustained Houthi vessel hits have materialized, with threats unfulfilled, underscoring military deterrence as the primary driver of subdued probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於<2 47%
2–3 16%
8–9 12%
4–5 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
47%
2–3
16%
4–5
11%
6–7
9%
8–9
12%
10+
8%
<2 47%
2–3 16%
8–9 12%
4–5 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
$788 交易量
47%
2–3
$0 交易量
16%
4–5
$0 交易量
11%
6–7
$0 交易量
9%
8–9
$0 交易量
12%
10+
$100 交易量
8%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran before April 30, reflecting a recent lull in verified strikes despite heightened tensions in the ongoing Iran conflict. Iranian forces deliberately hit at least two civilian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11, prompting U.S. Central Command to destroy an entire class of Iranian warships and intensify patrols, degrading Tehran's naval retaliatory capacity. Yemen's Houthis, Iran's key proxy, launched ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28—marking their war entry—but have refrained from Red Sea shipping attacks for over three weeks amid U.S. airstrikes and a post-ceasefire pause since late 2025. No sustained Houthi vessel hits have materialized, with threats unfulfilled, underscoring military deterrence as the primary driver of subdued probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
交易量
$888結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran before April 30, reflecting a recent lull in verified strikes despite heightened tensions in the ongoing Iran conflict. Iranian forces deliberately hit at least two civilian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11, prompting U.S. Central Command to destroy an entire class of Iranian warships and intensify patrols, degrading Tehran's naval retaliatory capacity. Yemen's Houthis, Iran's key proxy, launched ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28—marking their war entry—but have refrained from Red Sea shipping attacks for over three weeks amid U.S. airstrikes and a post-ceasefire pause since late 2025. No sustained Houthi vessel hits have materialized, with threats unfulfilled, underscoring military deterrence as the primary driver of subdued probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$888結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran before April 30, reflecting a recent lull in verified strikes despite heightened tensions in the ongoing Iran conflict. Iranian forces deliberately hit at least two civilian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11, prompting U.S. Central Command to destroy an entire class of Iranian warships and intensify patrols, degrading Tehran's naval retaliatory capacity. Yemen's Houthis, Iran's key proxy, launched ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28—marking their war entry—but have refrained from Red Sea shipping attacks for over three weeks amid U.S. airstrikes and a post-ceasefire pause since late 2025. No sustained Houthi vessel hits have materialized, with threats unfulfilled, underscoring military deterrence as the primary driver of subdued probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions