Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, anchored by ongoing airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen—intensified by recent B-52 and B-2 bomber operations amid Red Sea shipping attacks—plus routine strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, al-Shabaab in Somalia, and ISIS remnants elsewhere, establishing a baseline of four theaters. Leading alternatives like 9 (16%) and 8 (14%) differentiate on expected escalations, such as responses to North Korean missile tests, Iranian nuclear advances, or Taiwan Strait provocations under Trump administration deterrence posture. Support could consolidate around 7 if diplomacy yields de-escalation in Yemen or no major new invasions emerge, while fresh airstrikes in Venezuela, Haiti, or Sudan might boost higher counts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於7 28.9%
9 16.0%
8 13.8%
6 10.4%
$663,529 交易量
$663,529 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
6
10%
7
29%
8
14%
9
16%
10
10%
11
5%
12
3%
13
2%
14
2%
15+
7%
7 28.9%
9 16.0%
8 13.8%
6 10.4%
$663,529 交易量
$663,529 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
6
$411,338 交易量
10%
7
$0 交易量
29%
8
$0 交易量
14%
9
$0 交易量
16%
10
$10,095 交易量
10%
11
$0 交易量
5%
12
$6,927 交易量
3%
13
$6,837 交易量
2%
14
$19,764 交易量
2%
15+
$48,726 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, anchored by ongoing airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen—intensified by recent B-52 and B-2 bomber operations amid Red Sea shipping attacks—plus routine strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, al-Shabaab in Somalia, and ISIS remnants elsewhere, establishing a baseline of four theaters. Leading alternatives like 9 (16%) and 8 (14%) differentiate on expected escalations, such as responses to North Korean missile tests, Iranian nuclear advances, or Taiwan Strait provocations under Trump administration deterrence posture. Support could consolidate around 7 if diplomacy yields de-escalation in Yemen or no major new invasions emerge, while fresh airstrikes in Venezuela, Haiti, or Sudan might boost higher counts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
交易量
$663,529結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, anchored by ongoing airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen—intensified by recent B-52 and B-2 bomber operations amid Red Sea shipping attacks—plus routine strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, al-Shabaab in Somalia, and ISIS remnants elsewhere, establishing a baseline of four theaters. Leading alternatives like 9 (16%) and 8 (14%) differentiate on expected escalations, such as responses to North Korean missile tests, Iranian nuclear advances, or Taiwan Strait provocations under Trump administration deterrence posture. Support could consolidate around 7 if diplomacy yields de-escalation in Yemen or no major new invasions emerge, while fresh airstrikes in Venezuela, Haiti, or Sudan might boost higher counts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$663,529結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, anchored by ongoing airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen—intensified by recent B-52 and B-2 bomber operations amid Red Sea shipping attacks—plus routine strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, al-Shabaab in Somalia, and ISIS remnants elsewhere, establishing a baseline of four theaters. Leading alternatives like 9 (16%) and 8 (14%) differentiate on expected escalations, such as responses to North Korean missile tests, Iranian nuclear advances, or Taiwan Strait provocations under Trump administration deterrence posture. Support could consolidate around 7 if diplomacy yields de-escalation in Yemen or no major new invasions emerge, while fresh airstrikes in Venezuela, Haiti, or Sudan might boost higher counts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions