Amid the US-Israel war with Iran that erupted on February 28, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether Israeli airstrikes will expand beyond the three primary fronts—targeting regime infrastructure in Iran, Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, and military sites in Syria—into a fourth country like Yemen or Iraq during April. Recent dawn airstrikes on southern Lebanon and vows to intensify operations, coupled with Yemen's Houthi missile launches intercepted by Israel, have kept ≥4 and 3 probabilities tightly matched near 43%, signaling trader expectations of sustained multi-front escalation absent diplomatic breakthroughs from ongoing US-led ceasefire talks. IDF plans extending to early April Passover add to the balance, with Iranian retaliation or proxy activations potentially tipping toward more targets.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於≥4 45%
3 41%
2 14%
≤1 3.0%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
3%
2
14%
3
41%
≥4
45%
≥4 45%
3 41%
2 14%
≤1 3.0%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$250 交易量
3%
2
$281 交易量
14%
3
$326 交易量
41%
≥4
$517 交易量
45%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war with Iran that erupted on February 28, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether Israeli airstrikes will expand beyond the three primary fronts—targeting regime infrastructure in Iran, Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, and military sites in Syria—into a fourth country like Yemen or Iraq during April. Recent dawn airstrikes on southern Lebanon and vows to intensify operations, coupled with Yemen's Houthi missile launches intercepted by Israel, have kept ≥4 and 3 probabilities tightly matched near 43%, signaling trader expectations of sustained multi-front escalation absent diplomatic breakthroughs from ongoing US-led ceasefire talks. IDF plans extending to early April Passover add to the balance, with Iranian retaliation or proxy activations potentially tipping toward more targets.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$1,373結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war with Iran that erupted on February 28, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether Israeli airstrikes will expand beyond the three primary fronts—targeting regime infrastructure in Iran, Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, and military sites in Syria—into a fourth country like Yemen or Iraq during April. Recent dawn airstrikes on southern Lebanon and vows to intensify operations, coupled with Yemen's Houthi missile launches intercepted by Israel, have kept ≥4 and 3 probabilities tightly matched near 43%, signaling trader expectations of sustained multi-front escalation absent diplomatic breakthroughs from ongoing US-led ceasefire talks. IDF plans extending to early April Passover add to the balance, with Iranian retaliation or proxy activations potentially tipping toward more targets.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,373結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the US-Israel war with Iran that erupted on February 28, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether Israeli airstrikes will expand beyond the three primary fronts—targeting regime infrastructure in Iran, Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, and military sites in Syria—into a fourth country like Yemen or Iraq during April. Recent dawn airstrikes on southern Lebanon and vows to intensify operations, coupled with Yemen's Houthi missile launches intercepted by Israel, have kept ≥4 and 3 probabilities tightly matched near 43%, signaling trader expectations of sustained multi-front escalation absent diplomatic breakthroughs from ongoing US-led ceasefire talks. IDF plans extending to early April Passover add to the balance, with Iranian retaliation or proxy activations potentially tipping toward more targets.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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