Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis escalated the conflict on March 28 with their first missile attack on Israel since the US-Israeli war against Iran began on February 28, prompting trader bets on potential Israeli retaliation in Yemen alongside ongoing airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. This keeps the market tightly contested between 3 countries (46.5%)—reflecting routine targeting of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian assets in Syria, and core sites in Iran—and ≥4 (44.5%), as further Houthi barrages or militia activity in Iraq could expand fronts. Lower odds for 2 or ≤1 underscore expectations of sustained multi-axis military actions through April amid reciprocal escalations and no ceasefire signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於≥4 48%
3 47%
2 5%
≤1 2.0%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
2%
2
5%
3
47%
≥4
48%
≥4 48%
3 47%
2 5%
≤1 2.0%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$437 交易量
2%
2
$670 交易量
5%
3
$1,262 交易量
47%
≥4
$2,325 交易量
48%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis escalated the conflict on March 28 with their first missile attack on Israel since the US-Israeli war against Iran began on February 28, prompting trader bets on potential Israeli retaliation in Yemen alongside ongoing airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. This keeps the market tightly contested between 3 countries (46.5%)—reflecting routine targeting of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian assets in Syria, and core sites in Iran—and ≥4 (44.5%), as further Houthi barrages or militia activity in Iraq could expand fronts. Lower odds for 2 or ≤1 underscore expectations of sustained multi-axis military actions through April amid reciprocal escalations and no ceasefire signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$4,695結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis escalated the conflict on March 28 with their first missile attack on Israel since the US-Israeli war against Iran began on February 28, prompting trader bets on potential Israeli retaliation in Yemen alongside ongoing airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. This keeps the market tightly contested between 3 countries (46.5%)—reflecting routine targeting of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian assets in Syria, and core sites in Iran—and ≥4 (44.5%), as further Houthi barrages or militia activity in Iraq could expand fronts. Lower odds for 2 or ≤1 underscore expectations of sustained multi-axis military actions through April amid reciprocal escalations and no ceasefire signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$4,695結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis escalated the conflict on March 28 with their first missile attack on Israel since the US-Israeli war against Iran began on February 28, prompting trader bets on potential Israeli retaliation in Yemen alongside ongoing airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. This keeps the market tightly contested between 3 countries (46.5%)—reflecting routine targeting of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian assets in Syria, and core sites in Iran—and ≥4 (44.5%), as further Houthi barrages or militia activity in Iraq could expand fronts. Lower odds for 2 or ≤1 underscore expectations of sustained multi-axis military actions through April amid reciprocal escalations and no ceasefire signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions