Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 distinct countries at 41% implied probability for Israeli strikes in 2026, driven by confirmed military actions against Iran—initiated February 28 alongside U.S. forces targeting nuclear sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—and Lebanon, with over 250 airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in March amid southern border escalations. Ongoing operations in Gaza and routine Syrian targets complete the leading tally of four, per recent timelines, while Yemen's Houthi missile resumption on March 28 has boosted 5-country odds to 27% without verified Israeli retaliation there yet. March reports of the Israel-Iran war slowing, coupled with Gulf state diplomacy, limit expectations for further expansion like Iraq, keeping higher counts below 3%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4 41.1%
5 27.5%
6 12.6%
3 12.5%
$6,350,679 交易量
$6,350,679 交易量
2026-12-31
3
13%
4
41%
5
28%
6
13%
7
3%
8
2%
9
1%
10
1%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15以上
<1%
4 41.1%
5 27.5%
6 12.6%
3 12.5%
$6,350,679 交易量
$6,350,679 交易量
2026-12-31
3
$1,893,088 交易量
13%
4
$1,140,386 交易量
41%
5
$491,587 交易量
28%
6
$626,342 交易量
13%
7
$584,735 交易量
3%
8
$499,430 交易量
2%
9
$198,729 交易量
1%
10
$375,430 交易量
1%
11
$89,607 交易量
1%
12
$59,435 交易量
<1%
13
$131,382 交易量
<1%
14
$99,811 交易量
<1%
15以上
$35,136 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 distinct countries at 41% implied probability for Israeli strikes in 2026, driven by confirmed military actions against Iran—initiated February 28 alongside U.S. forces targeting nuclear sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—and Lebanon, with over 250 airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in March amid southern border escalations. Ongoing operations in Gaza and routine Syrian targets complete the leading tally of four, per recent timelines, while Yemen's Houthi missile resumption on March 28 has boosted 5-country odds to 27% without verified Israeli retaliation there yet. March reports of the Israel-Iran war slowing, coupled with Gulf state diplomacy, limit expectations for further expansion like Iraq, keeping higher counts below 3%.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
交易量
$6,350,679結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 distinct countries at 41% implied probability for Israeli strikes in 2026, driven by confirmed military actions against Iran—initiated February 28 alongside U.S. forces targeting nuclear sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—and Lebanon, with over 250 airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in March amid southern border escalations. Ongoing operations in Gaza and routine Syrian targets complete the leading tally of four, per recent timelines, while Yemen's Houthi missile resumption on March 28 has boosted 5-country odds to 27% without verified Israeli retaliation there yet. March reports of the Israel-Iran war slowing, coupled with Gulf state diplomacy, limit expectations for further expansion like Iraq, keeping higher counts below 3%.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,350,679結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 distinct countries at 41% implied probability for Israeli strikes in 2026, driven by confirmed military actions against Iran—initiated February 28 alongside U.S. forces targeting nuclear sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—and Lebanon, with over 250 airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in March amid southern border escalations. Ongoing operations in Gaza and routine Syrian targets complete the leading tally of four, per recent timelines, while Yemen's Houthi missile resumption on March 28 has boosted 5-country odds to 27% without verified Israeli retaliation there yet. March reports of the Israel-Iran war slowing, coupled with Gulf state diplomacy, limit expectations for further expansion like Iraq, keeping higher counts below 3%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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