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金融·Jerome Powell

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？

Market icon
金融·Jerome Powell

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？

Dec 31

Dec 31

$153,001 交易量

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$153,001 交易量

Polymarket

4.5%

$10,967 交易量

85%

4.6%

$31,397 交易量

72%

4.8%

$43,173 交易量

48%

5.0%

$27,932 交易量

29%

5.2%

$7,487 交易量

21%

5.5%

$1,062 交易量

18%

5.7%

$2,357 交易量

18%

6.0%

$1,659 交易量

17%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—its highest since July 2025—reflecting trader concerns over sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions like the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. February labor data showed a softening market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% and payrolls contracting by 92,000, yet persistent price pressures have pushed yields up from 4.20% earlier in the month. Market-implied paths suggest limited upside to around 4.25% by year-end, per consensus forecasts, but March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting could shift expectations if inflation exceeds 2.8% year-over-year or policy turns hawkish.

The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—its highest since July 2025—reflecting trader concerns over sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions like the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. February labor data showed a softening market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% and payrolls contracting by 92,000, yet persistent price pressures have pushed yields up from 4.20% earlier in the month. Market-implied paths suggest limited upside to around 4.25% by year-end, per consensus forecasts, but March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting could shift expectations if inflation exceeds 2.8% year-over-year or policy turns hawkish.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—its highest since July 2025—reflecting trader concerns over sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions like the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. February labor data showed a softening market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% and payrolls contracting by 92,000, yet persistent price pressures have pushed yields up from 4.20% earlier in the month. Market-implied paths suggest limited upside to around 4.25% by year-end, per consensus forecasts, but March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting could shift expectations if inflation exceeds 2.8% year-over-year or policy turns hawkish.

The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—its highest since July 2025—reflecting trader concerns over sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions like the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. February labor data showed a softening market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% and payrolls contracting by 92,000, yet persistent price pressures have pushed yields up from 4.20% earlier in the month. Market-implied paths suggest limited upside to around 4.25% by year-end, per consensus forecasts, but March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting could shift expectations if inflation exceeds 2.8% year-over-year or policy turns hawkish.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.3%" at 100%, followed by "4.4%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" has generated $153K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" is "4.3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.4%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.