Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors an 18°C high in Tokyo at 68% implied probability, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts indicating partly cloudy conditions and moderate temperatures amid a lingering spring front. Current observations as of mid-morning show readings around 14–15°C at central Tokyo stations, with model ensembles like the JMA Meso-Scale Model projecting peak heating to 17–19°C under limited solar insolation from high clouds and light southerly flow. This caps upside potential, relegating 19°C and higher to low odds (under 10% combined), while 17°C at 24.5% reflects scenarios of thickening clouds; historical early April highs average 18°C, aligning with above-normal seasonal outlooks. JMA hourly updates through afternoon will sharpen resolution based on official Tokyo Observatory data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?
17°C 42%
18°C 36%
19°C 15.0%
20°C 1.8%
$105,356 交易量
$105,356 交易量
2026-04-04
17°C
42%
18°C
36%
19°C
15%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
<1%
17°C 42%
18°C 36%
19°C 15.0%
20°C 1.8%
$105,356 交易量
$105,356 交易量
2026-04-04
17°C
$13,828 交易量
42%
18°C
$5,885 交易量
36%
19°C
$8,169 交易量
15%
20°C
$7,321 交易量
2%
21°C or higher
$7,761 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors an 18°C high in Tokyo at 68% implied probability, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts indicating partly cloudy conditions and moderate temperatures amid a lingering spring front. Current observations as of mid-morning show readings around 14–15°C at central Tokyo stations, with model ensembles like the JMA Meso-Scale Model projecting peak heating to 17–19°C under limited solar insolation from high clouds and light southerly flow. This caps upside potential, relegating 19°C and higher to low odds (under 10% combined), while 17°C at 24.5% reflects scenarios of thickening clouds; historical early April highs average 18°C, aligning with above-normal seasonal outlooks. JMA hourly updates through afternoon will sharpen resolution based on official Tokyo Observatory data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
交易量
$105,356結束日期
2026-04-04市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors an 18°C high in Tokyo at 68% implied probability, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts indicating partly cloudy conditions and moderate temperatures amid a lingering spring front. Current observations as of mid-morning show readings around 14–15°C at central Tokyo stations, with model ensembles like the JMA Meso-Scale Model projecting peak heating to 17–19°C under limited solar insolation from high clouds and light southerly flow. This caps upside potential, relegating 19°C and higher to low odds (under 10% combined), while 17°C at 24.5% reflects scenarios of thickening clouds; historical early April highs average 18°C, aligning with above-normal seasonal outlooks. JMA hourly updates through afternoon will sharpen resolution based on official Tokyo Observatory data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$105,356結束日期
2026-04-04市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors an 18°C high in Tokyo at 68% implied probability, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts indicating partly cloudy conditions and moderate temperatures amid a lingering spring front. Current observations as of mid-morning show readings around 14–15°C at central Tokyo stations, with model ensembles like the JMA Meso-Scale Model projecting peak heating to 17–19°C under limited solar insolation from high clouds and light southerly flow. This caps upside potential, relegating 19°C and higher to low odds (under 10% combined), while 17°C at 24.5% reflects scenarios of thickening clouds; historical early April highs average 18°C, aligning with above-normal seasonal outlooks. JMA hourly updates through afternoon will sharpen resolution based on official Tokyo Observatory data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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