Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 69°F or below in Los Angeles on March 25, backed by National Weather Service observations and models showing a daytime high of 66–68°F at LAX, the market's likely reference station. Persistent onshore flow from a cool Pacific marine layer, combined with upper-level troughing over California, has capped temperatures well below seasonal norms of 70–75°F, consistent with recent spring patterns amid neutral ENSO conditions. No significant warming signals appear in ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-event measurement revision from official NOAA data or an unforecasted clearing event, both highly improbable given stable synoptic setup. Final high will be confirmed via archived airport observations within days.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 25?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 25?
69°F or below 100.0%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$0.00 交易量
$0.00 交易量
69°F or below
Yes
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
69°F or below 100.0%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$0.00 交易量
$0.00 交易量
69°F or below
Yes
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 21, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 69°F or below in Los Angeles on March 25, backed by National Weather Service observations and models showing a daytime high of 66–68°F at LAX, the market's likely reference station. Persistent onshore flow from a cool Pacific marine layer, combined with upper-level troughing over California, has capped temperatures well below seasonal norms of 70–75°F, consistent with recent spring patterns amid neutral ENSO conditions. No significant warming signals appear in ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-event measurement revision from official NOAA data or an unforecasted clearing event, both highly improbable given stable synoptic setup. Final high will be confirmed via archived airport observations within days.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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