Polymarket traders price a 61.5% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections median upgrade to 2.4% from prior 2.3%, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures offsetting Q4 2025 slowdown to 0.7% annualized (full-year 2.1%). Private consensus from CBO, Deloitte, and Vanguard clusters at 2.2-2.5%, supported by fiscal tailwinds and stable unemployment near 4.4%, keeping contraction odds low (<0.5% at 10%). Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 around 2%, with advance BEA release late April pivotal for annual path amid sticky inflation and modest Fed rate cuts expected.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於>2.5% 62%
1.5–2.0% 13.7%
低於0.5% 10.0%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$25,066 交易量
$25,066 交易量
2027-01-29
低於0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
7%
1.5–2.0%
14%
2.0–2.5%
10%
>2.5%
62%
>2.5% 62%
1.5–2.0% 13.7%
低於0.5% 10.0%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$25,066 交易量
$25,066 交易量
2027-01-29
低於0.5%
$3,681 交易量
10%
0.5–1.0%
$14,955 交易量
4%
1.0–1.5%
$1,432 交易量
7%
1.5–2.0%
$0 交易量
14%
2.0–2.5%
$1,338 交易量
10%
>2.5%
$3,660 交易量
62%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 61.5% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections median upgrade to 2.4% from prior 2.3%, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures offsetting Q4 2025 slowdown to 0.7% annualized (full-year 2.1%). Private consensus from CBO, Deloitte, and Vanguard clusters at 2.2-2.5%, supported by fiscal tailwinds and stable unemployment near 4.4%, keeping contraction odds low (<0.5% at 10%). Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 around 2%, with advance BEA release late April pivotal for annual path amid sticky inflation and modest Fed rate cuts expected.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$25,066結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 61.5% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections median upgrade to 2.4% from prior 2.3%, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures offsetting Q4 2025 slowdown to 0.7% annualized (full-year 2.1%). Private consensus from CBO, Deloitte, and Vanguard clusters at 2.2-2.5%, supported by fiscal tailwinds and stable unemployment near 4.4%, keeping contraction odds low (<0.5% at 10%). Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 around 2%, with advance BEA release late April pivotal for annual path amid sticky inflation and modest Fed rate cuts expected.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$25,066結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 61.5% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections median upgrade to 2.4% from prior 2.3%, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures offsetting Q4 2025 slowdown to 0.7% annualized (full-year 2.1%). Private consensus from CBO, Deloitte, and Vanguard clusters at 2.2-2.5%, supported by fiscal tailwinds and stable unemployment near 4.4%, keeping contraction odds low (<0.5% at 10%). Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 around 2%, with advance BEA release late April pivotal for annual path amid sticky inflation and modest Fed rate cuts expected.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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