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政治·主要

FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
政治·主要

FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者

Catalina Lauf 40%

麥迪遜·考索恩 17.3%

吉姆·奧伯韋斯 9.5%

吉姆·施瓦茨爾 5%

Polymarket

$18,239 交易量

Catalina Lauf 40%

麥迪遜·考索恩 17.3%

吉姆·奧伯韋斯 9.5%

吉姆·施瓦茨爾 5%

Polymarket

$18,239 交易量

Catalina Lauf

$15,461 交易量

54%

麥迪遜·考索恩

$721 交易量

17%

吉姆·奧伯韋斯

$2,057 交易量

10%

吉姆·施瓦茨爾

$0 交易量

18%

Bob Rommel

$0 交易量

2%

Spencer Roach

$0 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 54%, followed by "吉姆·施瓦茨爾" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者" has generated $18.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者" is "Catalina Lauf" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "吉姆·施瓦茨爾" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.