Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while unemployment edged to 4.4% with 92,000 job losses but low weekly claims signal labor market stability; the dot plot upgraded GDP and inflation forecasts, projecting just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later. Chair Powell highlighted slower disinflation progress and geopolitical risks like Iran tensions elevating energy prices, tempering cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 March CPI and May nonfarm payrolls.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於無變動 87%
下調25個基點 7%
上調25個基點 5.7%
降息50個基點或以上 1.5%
$4,096,731 交易量
$4,096,731 交易量
Jun 17, 2026
降息50個基點或以上
2%
下調25個基點
7%
無變動
87%
上調25個基點
6%
上調超過50個基點
1%
無變動 87%
下調25個基點 7%
上調25個基點 5.7%
降息50個基點或以上 1.5%
$4,096,731 交易量
$4,096,731 交易量
Jun 17, 2026
降息50個基點或以上
$1,000,589 交易量
2%
下調25個基點
$566,163 交易量
7%
無變動
$972,219 交易量
87%
上調25個基點
$843,789 交易量
6%
上調超過50個基點
$713,970 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while unemployment edged to 4.4% with 92,000 job losses but low weekly claims signal labor market stability; the dot plot upgraded GDP and inflation forecasts, projecting just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later. Chair Powell highlighted slower disinflation progress and geopolitical risks like Iran tensions elevating energy prices, tempering cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 March CPI and May nonfarm payrolls.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
交易量
$4,096,731結束日期
Jun 17, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while unemployment edged to 4.4% with 92,000 job losses but low weekly claims signal labor market stability; the dot plot upgraded GDP and inflation forecasts, projecting just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later. Chair Powell highlighted slower disinflation progress and geopolitical risks like Iran tensions elevating energy prices, tempering cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 March CPI and May nonfarm payrolls.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$4,096,731結束日期
Jun 17, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while unemployment edged to 4.4% with 92,000 job losses but low weekly claims signal labor market stability; the dot plot upgraded GDP and inflation forecasts, projecting just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later. Chair Powell highlighted slower disinflation progress and geopolitical risks like Iran tensions elevating energy prices, tempering cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 March CPI and May nonfarm payrolls.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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