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政治·全球選舉

Farrer補選獲勝者

Market icon
政治·全球選舉

Farrer補選獲勝者

米歇爾·米爾索普 53%

大衛·法利 43%

Raissa Butkowski 3.0%

Rebecca Scriven 1.1%

Polymarket

$139,158 交易量

米歇爾·米爾索普 53%

大衛·法利 43%

Raissa Butkowski 3.0%

Rebecca Scriven 1.1%

Polymarket

$139,158 交易量

米歇爾·米爾索普會在澳洲眾議院費勒選區的補選中勝出嗎？ icon

米歇爾·米爾索普

$26,898 交易量

53%

大衛·法利會贏得澳洲眾議院法雷爾選區的補選嗎？ icon

大衛·法利

$90 交易量

43%

Raissa Butkowski 會贏得澳洲眾議院 Farrer 選區的補選嗎？ icon

Raissa Butkowski

$23 交易量

3%

Rebecca Scriven 會在澳洲眾議院 Farrer 補選中勝出嗎？ icon

Rebecca Scriven

$93,112 交易量

1%

海倫·道爾頓會贏得澳洲眾議院法勒選區的補選嗎？ icon

海倫·道爾頓

$19,035 交易量

1%

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).In the Farrer by-election set for May 9, trader consensus slightly favors independent Michelle Milthorpe at 52% over One Nation's David Farley at 43%, reflecting anticipated preference flows in this fragmented 12-candidate field for the traditionally safe Liberal seat vacated by Sussan Ley. Early March polling showed Farley leading primaries at 29% versus Milthorpe's 23% amid a split conservative vote—Liberals at 19%, Nationals at 5%—with Labor standing aside to consolidate anti-One Nation support. The race remains tight due to pivotal Murray-Darling Basin water buyback disputes and irrigation concerns dividing rural voters, whose independent streak favors local trust over party lines. Separation could arise from the April 30 candidates' debate, Coalition leader visits, or late preference signals from Liberals urging One Nation last.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
交易量
$139,158
結束日期
2026-05-09
市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).In the Farrer by-election set for May 9, trader consensus slightly favors independent Michelle Milthorpe at 52% over One Nation's David Farley at 43%, reflecting anticipated preference flows in this fragmented 12-candidate field for the traditionally safe Liberal seat vacated by Sussan Ley. Early March polling showed Farley leading primaries at 29% versus Milthorpe's 23% amid a split conservative vote—Liberals at 19%, Nationals at 5%—with Labor standing aside to consolidate anti-One Nation support. The race remains tight due to pivotal Murray-Darling Basin water buyback disputes and irrigation concerns dividing rural voters, whose independent streak favors local trust over party lines. Separation could arise from the April 30 candidates' debate, Coalition leader visits, or late preference signals from Liberals urging One Nation last.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
交易量
$139,158
結束日期
2026-05-09
市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Farrer補選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "米歇爾·米爾索普" at 54%, followed by "大衛·法利" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Farrer補選獲勝者" has generated $139.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Farrer補選獲勝者," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Farrer補選獲勝者" is "米歇爾·米爾索普" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "大衛·法利" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Farrer補選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.